Take a look at numberFire's team rankings page. Notice anything odd?
You have your strong Detroit Tigers team up there with the second-best World Series odds, but "That guy who's really, really fast", Hamilton would complete that Reds lineup in a way that Cozart can't. Given past similar players, we project that Hamilton would add about 0.50 runs per 27 plate appearances and steal 48 bases if given his projected 422 plate appearances. That's not bad.
But he may not even be the biggest difference maker who could be called up to make an impact for the Reds. Our analytics see Bronson Arroyo and Mike Leake as only preventing 0.05 runs and 0.03 runs, respectively, per nine innings as compared to the league-average pitcher. At least they're better than league average, but it's only barely.
Tony Cingrani, though is making waves with the way he's moved through the Reds system. With 101 Ks and only 39 walks in 89.1 IP for AA Pensacola last season, the Reds already knew he could pitch. His one-walk-away-from-perfect first start at AAA Louisville only confirmed that fact. If Leake struggles, don't be surprised to see him called up and provide yet another live arm to this already hard-throwing rotation.
4. Full Lineup Production
I've finally found something in Cincy that makes me feel more fulfilled than Skyline Chili. You tell me where you find the hole in this lineup, especially when looking at each player's projected nERD score of how many runs they are projected to add over the league-average player per 27 plate appearances.
| Batting Order | Position | Player | Proj. nERD Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CF | Shin-Soo Choo | 2.85 |
| 2 | LF | Ryan Ludwick | 0.80 |
| 3 | 1B | Joey Votto | 9.23 |
| 4 | 2B | Brandon Phillips | 3.89 |
| 5 | RF | Jay Bruce | 3.16 |
| 6 | 3B | Todd Frazier | 1.25 |
| 7 | SS | Zack Cozart | -1.09 |
| 8 | C | Ryan Hanigan | -4.18 |
That catcher position sticks out like an ugly blister, but otherwise... you're not getting much of a break with that lineup, are you? When Ryan Ludwick returns from his current DL-stint, the top six hitters in the lineup will project to contribute 21.25 runs of value per 27 plate appearances. That's absolutely incredible efficiency that ranks with the top lineups of any team in the majors, including the Angels and Tigers.
With that type of run production, it really doesn't matter that only two Reds starters (No. 21 Mat Latos and No. 25 Johnny Cueto) are projected among the MLB's top 50 starting pitchers. As long as they are able to pitch adequately, between the lineup and the bullpen holding leads, the Reds should have no trouble.
Don't be surprised if, come October, you're staring at an all-Midwestern Reds vs. Tigers World Series. As of now, that's the numberFire oddsmaker's favorite. Personally, I wouldn't mind an Aroldis Chapman vs. Prince Fielder October showdown.