If you have played daily fantasy sports for a while, you realize by now the importance of being contrarian, especially in large-field tournaments. Being able to recognize which players are going to be owned by the majority of the field and to find players who you think have a similar point projection but will come at much lower ownership can really separate yourself from your opponents.
The purpose of this article will be to bring you some high-upside players who will likely go overlooked and give you an edge.
David Price, SP, Boston Red Sox
FanDuel Price: $9,400
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
David Price has struggled mightily to start the season -- posting a 7.06 ERA through his first four starts. With Clayton Kershaw facing the Marlins and Max Scherzer facing the Phillies, it's unlikely Price is highly owned.
Why You Should Use Him:
While Price's ERA isn't pretty, he is still mowing batters down at an impressive rate -- posting 13.3 strikeouts per nine innings -- which boosts his appeal in tournaments.
His opponent tonight, the Braves, ranked 29th in wOBA against lefties last season, and have the lowest wOBA against lefties this season. They also have the 10th-highest strikeout rate against lefties this season. Price's teammate, Rick Porcello, put up 49 FanDuel points against the Braves last night, and they have been worse against lefties than righties.
This certainly seems like the perfect storm for a get-right game for Price. Target him liberally in tournaments.
Brett Gardner, OF, New York Yankees
FanDuel Price: $3,200
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
With several enticing outfielders available in the Colorado-Pittsburgh game, it is likely Brett Gardner goes under-owned.
Why You Should Use Him:
Gardner is attractive on FanDuel because of his price.
The lefty has hit righties better throughout his career and draws a favorable matchup against right-hander A.J. Griffin. Griffin had a 3.95 SIERA last season and struggled to contain left-handed batters.
The Yanks are projected for 4.8 runs tonight, which is the highest of any team not playing in Coors Field tonight. If you're going to fade the expensive Coors bats tonight, Gardner is a nice contrarian option.
J.D. Martinez, OF, Detroit Tigers
FanDuel Price: $3,200
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
J.D. Martinez has been cold lately and will also be overlooked in a deep outfield player pool.
Why You Should Use Him:
Martinez has been cold recently, but he absolutely crushed lefties throughout his career.
Considering his matchup against lefty Rich Hill, who has shown vulnerability throughout his career, Martinez is certainly worth a look in tournaments at this price. Vegas has Detroit's right-handed heavy lineup projected for 4.2 runs tonight. Give Martinez a look in tournaments.
Jose Abreu, 1B, Chicago White Sox
FanDuel Price: $3,000
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
Jose Abreu has been ice-cold at the plate and is part of an always deep first base position.
Why You Should Use Him:
Abreu continues to struggle at the plate, but tonight's matchup with R.A. Dickey may be just what he needs to turn things around.
In his career, Abreu is 4-for-9 with 3 home runs against Dickey. Considering Dickey's struggles over the last few season, that isn't overly surprising. A general rule of thumb is to target righties against knuckle-ballers, and that has proven to be correct in this case in the past.
Abreu has hit righties better in his career, too. Everything lines up from a statistical perspective, and this could be one of your last chances to get Abreu at low ownership and price.
Kendrys Morales, 1B, Kansas City Royals
FanDuel Price: $2,900
Why He Will Go Overlooked:
Kendrys Morales is almost never highly owned, and that isn't likely to change tonight.
Why You Should Use Him:
Morales' opponent today will be Jered Weaver, who is arguably the worst pitcher on today's slate. Weaver posted a 4.88 SIERA last season and has been worse against lefties throughout his career. His fastball velocity is down to a laughable 82 miles per hour, and Kansas City should be able to tee-off on him tonight.
Morales is 8-for-14 in his career against Weaver and should add to that tonight. Morales is a switch hitter but will be hitting from the left side against Weaver. Last season, Morales raised his slugging percentage from .412 to .538 against righties, while also raising his ISO from .113 to .254. Morales' hard-hit rate rose to 38.3 percent against righties last year too.
All of these stats used in conjunction offer an easy explanation as to why Morales hit 18 of his 22 home runs against right-handed pitchers last season.