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The Three Top Pitchers

Derek Holland - See, here's the thing: the Royals aren't actually that bad at batting. They only strike out on 17.3 percent of their plate appearances (fourth-least), and they hold a .307 batting average on balls in play (seventh-best). But then, of course, they only draw walks on a second-least 6.5 percent of plate appearances and hit a second-least 1.5 percent homerun rate. It takes a high-strikeout pitcher to take advantage of the free swingers, and Holland's 23.6 percent K rate this season should do the trick.

CC Sabathia - Ah, the old Red Sox/Yankees rivalry. Normally, I'd be a bit bullish about taking on Boston and their second-best .345 OBP. But Sabathia has had a down year in only two areas: strikeout rate (Boston is in the top ten highest in the league) and homerun rate (Boston is exactly league-average). The Red Sox may hold the major's second-highest walk rate at 10.3 percent, but Sabathia's own 5.1 percent rate should act as a nice counter.

Tommy Hanson - You thought yesterday was confusing? Out of nine possible pitching slots on our optimized rosters today, there are seven different pitchers featured, with Sabathia and Holland the two multiples. So yeah, that's fun. You could have Miller or Scherzer or Kluber or Marquis depending on format, but I personally like Hanson. His 0.52 projected wins are the second-most of any pitcher tonight behind Holland, and his low 2013 strikeout rate should be fixed nicely by Houston's 25.3 percent team rate.

Top High-Priced Hitters

Robinson Cano - Sure, Jon Lester may be 6-1. He may hold the lowest WHIP, lowest walk rate, highest strikeout rate, and lowest BABIP of his career. Those things could very well mean he has grown as a pitcher. Or, the more likely scenario, he's due to regress closer to his career average the rest of the way, and those numbers will cower back towards those averages. Yeah, stats say I should take the second one. Don't be scared of facing him with Cano's 8 for 21 past five games.

David Murphy - David Murphy holds a career-best 3.9 percent homerun rate, career-best 23 percent line drive rate, and... a .223 BABIP has led him to a career-worst .269 OBP. Well, that makes no sense. Expect the numbers to start making sense soon and for Murphy to regress closer to his .310 BABIP career average, especially facing Wade Davis's .392 BABIP in 242 opposing plate appearances.

Mid-Range Cost-Effective Hitters

Chase Headley - We don't have much data to go on for Blue Jays starter Chad Jenkins. It's possible he's a great pitcher. Or, as the stats say through less than a season so far, he could allow a career 25 percent line drive rate and only strike out 11.0 percent of the batters he faces. For tonight's purposes, I'm going to tend towards the latter and expect Headley's 23.2 percent K rate to not be a problem and his 28 percent line drive rate to be the guiding light.

A.J. Pierzynski - Another hitter, another way to take advantage of Wade Davis's absurdly high .392 BABIP. Davis has allowed a staggering 31 percent of balls in play against him this season to be hit for line drives. I don't think Pierzynski sees anything wrong with that: he should be able to take advantage with a 26 percent line drive rate of his own. (The league average is at 22 percent.)