Why does everybody think that 49 homeruns in total. Hitting 50 isn't that much more of a stretch (just under a 50 percent chance), and even hitting 62 holds higher than 10 percent odds.

It may look like Davis's power numbers of come out of nowhere. Statistically, however, these figures actually make sense. And given the probabilities, we wouldn't be too surprised if they continued.

Miguel Cabrera

50 Homeruns: 16.22%
60 Homeruns: 0.16%
62 Homeruns: 0.04%

Miggy, meanwhile, doesn't have the luxury of high statistical probability to help him out. From seasons and seasons data, we know exactly what he can do. And likely, it's not hit an additional 25 homeruns over the rest of this season.

Already six homeruns behind Davis, Cabrera is currently on pace to hit exactly 50 homeruns this season. Hitting homeruns on 6.8 percent of his total plate appearances place him third among qualified MLB batters (the Pirates' Pedro Alvarez is second at 7.1 percent), and 17.4 percent of his fly balls have traveled out of the ballpark. On its face, those numbers don't seem too outlandish.

However, Cabrera has also registered nine straight seasons of at least 670 plate appearances. And in those seasons, Cabrera has never held a homerun rate higher than 6.3 percent (last year), has never hit more than 15.3 percent of fly balls for homeruns (last year), and has never held a slugging percentage higher than .622 (2010). Sure, it's possible he's getting better as a baseball player, but that's not the way we do things around here.

Statistically, we expect a regression to the mean for Cabrera. While the stability of his numbers means he's less likely to drop off than Chris Davis, it also means he's less likely to reach great heights. Our projections have him hitting 20 homeruns the rest of the way, finishing second behind Davis with 45 overall. The idea of hitting 60 or 62 seems like a pipe dream.

With his .461 OBP and .680 slugging, there's no denying that Miguel Cabrera is an exceptional hitter. We just don't see him as a Triple Crown hitter, not again. In a different season, in a different world, perhaps. This world, though, belongs to Chris Davis, and we're all just living in it.