We know the process for NASCAR DFS at the Daytona 500: you want to stack the back. You want to build your core around players starting further back, gunning for the place-differential upside they bring.
We just have to pick the best options back there. And we've got plenty for this year's race.
In addition to picking our place-differential options, we can also pick assumed winners, as outlined in this week's track preview. If a driver wins, they'll likely be in the perfect lineup, no matter where they start. We just have to make sure those drivers have the upside to get the job done.
Leaning on data can help us with both of those endeavors. A lot of that data is below.
This week's table is sorted by the drivers' starting positions, given that's a key driver of our decisions. Also listed are their FanDuel salaries, win odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, and relevant performances. The win odds are listed in fractional form, so Denny Hamlin ($14,000) being listed at 8 means he's +800 to win.
The performance-related numbers are each driver's average running position in relevant races. These can get fluky on pack-racing tracks like Daytona and Talladega as teams will sometimes hang out in the back in hopes of avoiding wrecks. However, finishing positions are even more volatile given the high crash frequency. So our best gauge of performance on pack tracks -- even while flawed -- is likely still average running position.
The goal here is to find drivers starting deep in the pack with palatable win odds and good past records of success. We won't have any issues finding those this time.
| Track History | Current Form | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Driver | FD Salary | Win Odds | Starting | 2020 Summer | 2020 Spring | 2019 Summer | 2019 Spring | Texas 2 | Kansas 2 | Talladega 2 | Las Vegas 2 | Darlington 3 | Talladega 1 |
| Alex Bowman | $10,000 | 20 | 1 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 11 |
| William Byron | $10,200 | 17 | 2 | 13 | 32 | 12 | 8 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 15 | 10 | 12 |
| Aric Almirola | $9,500 | 17 | 3 | 25 | 16 | 22 | 13 | 22 | 16 | 28 | 15 | 13 | 20 |
| Austin Dillon | $7,500 | 24 | 4 | 24 | 16 | 12 | 23 | 10 | 15 | 20 | 13 | 13 | 22 |
| Christopher Bell | $8,000 | 38 | 5 | 15 | 19 | -- | -- | 14 | 13 | 39 | 18 | 25 | 15 |
| Bubba Wallace | $8,500 | 20 | 6 | 15 | 26 | 22 | 33 | 34 | 20 | 13 | 25 | 29 | 15 |
| Ryan Newman | $6,000 | 38 | 7 | 19 | 13 | 22 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 10 | 20 | 20 | 26 |
| Kevin Harvick | $12,000 | 15 | 8 | 22 | 20 | 15 | 10 | 17 | 3 | 17 | 9 | 6 | 15 |
| Joey Logano | $13,000 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 10 | 4 |
| Kyle Busch | $11,000 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 17 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 9 | 8 | 14 |
| Ryan Preece | $4,200 | 85 | 11 | 25 | 21 | 23 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 11 | 25 | 23 | 18 |
| Chase Elliott | $13,500 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 5 | 20 | 4 | 5 | 22 |
| Kyle Larson | $11,500 | 17 | 13 | -- | 23 | 16 | 19 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Ryan Blaney | $13,300 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 8 | 22 | 6 |
| Daniel Suarez | $5,000 | 200 | 15 | 17 | -- | 21 | 15 | 27 | 30 | 24 | 30 | 28 | 27 |
| Corey LaJoie | $3,700 | 85 | 16 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 36 | 24 | 25 | 32 | 24 | 31 | 26 |
| Michael McDowell | $5,500 | 70 | 17 | 15 | 23 | 19 | 19 | 24 | 22 | 30 | 18 | 23 | 21 |
| David Ragan | $4,000 | 85 | 18 | -- | 19 | 24 | 23 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Jamie McMurray | $4,200 | 70 | 19 | -- | -- | -- | 23 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Kurt Busch | $9,000 | 24 | 20 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 31 | 14 | 18 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 12 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $8,500 | 24 | 21 | 17 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 19 | 20 | 38 | 23 | 18 | 10 |
| Chris Buescher | $7,300 | 55 | 22 | 18 | 13 | 20 | 29 | 37 | 23 | 8 | 18 | 21 | 15 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $8,200 | 30 | 23 | 12 | 16 | 21 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 21 | 16 |
| Brad Keselowski | $12,500 | 12 | 24 | 19 | 11 | 18 | 17 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 17 | 8 |
| Denny Hamlin | $14,000 | 8 | 25 | 10 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 9 | 20 | 4 | 5 | 12 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $9,300 | 17 | 26 | 12 | 22 | 15 | 23 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 24 |
| Cole Custer | $7,000 | 55 | 27 | 19 | 24 | -- | -- | 16 | 16 | 21 | 17 | 17 | 12 |
| Joey Gase | $2,500 | 200 | 28 | 37 | 34 | 36 | -- | 35 | 39 | 26 | 36 | 36 | 36 |
| Tyler Reddick | $7,000 | 55 | 29 | 16 | 18 | -- | 23 | 16 | 18 | 15 | 29 | 18 | 13 |
| Chase Briscoe | $6,500 | 55 | 30 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Erik Jones | $6,000 | 70 | 31 | 15 | 23 | 22 | 12 | 15 | 19 | 10 | 15 | 9 | 23 |
| Derrike Cope | $2,000 | 200 | 32 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Quin Houff | $2,500 | 200 | 33 | 32 | 33 | 39 | -- | 35 | 34 | 24 | 35 | 34 | 35 |
| Ross Chastain | $7,500 | 38 | 34 | 29 | 15 | 37 | 31 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 32 | -- |
| Cody Ware | $3,000 | 200 | 35 | -- | -- | -- | 35 | -- | -- | 23 | -- | -- | -- |
| Anthony Alfredo | $4,500 | 200 | 36 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Josh Bilicki | $2,000 | 200 | 37 | 39 | -- | -- | -- | 31 | 36 | -- | 36 | 34 | -- |
| B.J. McLeod | $3,000 | 170 | 38 | -- | 34 | 36 | 34 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 31 |
| Austin Cindric | $6,200 | 70 | 39 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Kaz Grala | $4,500 | 200 | 40 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
The favorite to win the race -- Hamlin -- is starting 26th. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say the two-time defending Daytona 500 champ has the upside to win. That's a good spot to not overthink it and build around Hamlin in cash games and swallow the chalk on him for tournaments.
The other top-end stud starting in the middle of the order is Brad Keselowski ($12,500). Keselowski has a wreck-filled history at the track -- he has failed to finish six of the past eight races -- but he has the equipment and skills necessary to win. He's alongside Hamlin as one of the staples despite the wrecks.
Deeper in the field, we run into some drivers whose track record in the lower series -- which doesn't show up on the sheet -- can up their appeal. A big one is Tyler Reddick ($7,000).
Reddick is a two-time Daytona winner, once in the Xfinity Series and once in the Camping World Truck Series. He didn't have as much success in the draft last year, and it has allowed his salary and his betting odds to slip. Reddick doesn't figure to be among the most popular plays in this range, making him an enticing under-the-radar option.
Two other past winners at Daytona are Ross Chastain ($7,500) and Kaz Grala ($4,500). Chastain won here in the Xfinity Series in 2019, and Grala did so in the Truck Series in 2017, his age-18 season. Grala's betting odds are likely selling his equipment short as Kaulig Racing has been ultra-competitive in the Xfinity Series the past couple years and is making a serious push to be a full-time Cup program as early as next year. With Chastain and Grala starting 34th and 40th, respectively, we can give them consideration as salary savers.
Austin Cindric ($6,200) doesn't have the same record of success in the lower series. His best finish at either Daytona or Talladega in the two lower series is fourth, so the skills aren't on par with Reddick, Chastain, or Grala. He is, though, starting 39th and is teammates with Keselowski, Joey Logano ($13,000), and Ryan Blaney ($13,300). That's enough to make him a high-end consideration despite the lack of a plus track record to this point.