In Talladega, we know our directive for NASCAR DFS: we gotta stack the back.
That's a bit less true in our non-qualifying era than it was previously. Perfect lineups from last year's two Talladega races were filled with drivers starting in the middle of the pack. But with drivers running in packs the entire day and lap-leaders hard to identify, we still know that our hunt for quality plays starts with those starting at the back of the grid.
That doesn't mean we're just picking drivers with no research at all. Talladega is less chaotic than Daytona, so we're less likely to get an out-of-nowhere top-10 from an underfunded team. We have to make sure these drivers aren't in lemons before we plug them in.
Looking back at past data can give us an idea of that.
The sheet below tries to provide a mix of data from pack tracks and others so that we can tell which drivers may not have the speed to keep up with the draft. If they can't do that, they're unlikely to be great plays regardless of how deep they're starting.
The current-form section includes the most recent three races at Daytona, the other pack-racing track on the schedule. The other three current-form races are the three to use the 550-horsepower package this year. They require more giddy-up than the shorter tracks, giving us a good signal as to whether these cars can keep pace.
As with other weeks, the data listed is each driver's average running position rather than their finish. That data is less valuable in Daytona and Talladega than others because drivers will sometimes hang in the back of the pack early, hoping to avoid wrecks, only to surge at the end. This strategy can work; Denny Hamlin ($13,000 on FanDuel) won the 2020 Daytona 500 after hanging around in the back the entire first stage.
The reason to still include that data is that it can tell us which cars were just totally out to lunch during a race. J.J. Yeley ($2,000) has had average running positions of 39th and 40th in his two pack-racing events on the sheet, meaning he's a tough sell despite starting 37th.
The other data listed here is each driver's starting position, FanDuel salary, and win odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. The win odds are presented in fractional form, so Hamlin being listed at 7 means he's +700 to win.
This is another thing we can use to cross drivers off. Those with +50000 odds are unlikely to have the necessary juice to compete. Once you get to +15000, there's likely at least something positive we can latch onto to justify considering them for DFS.
| Track History | Current Form | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Driver | FD Salary | Win Odds | Starting | 2020 Fall | 2020 Spring | 2019 Fall | 2019 Spring | Atlanta | Vegas | Homestead | Daytona 2021 | Daytona Fall '20 | Daytona Spring '20 |
| Denny Hamlin | $12,500 | 7 | 1 | 20 | 12 | 19 | 34 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 6 | 10 | 13 |
| Joey Logano | $13,000 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $10,000 | 20 | 3 | 13 | 24 | 31 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 27 | 12 | 22 |
| William Byron | $7,700 | 18 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 27 | 13 | 32 |
| Alex Bowman | $8,500 | 16 | 5 | 18 | 11 | 22 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 33 | 15 | 14 |
| Christopher Bell | $9,000 | 22 | 6 | 39 | 15 | -- | -- | 21 | 9 | 19 | 11 | 15 | 19 |
| Ryan Blaney | $13,500 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 29 | 13 | 12 |
| Chase Elliott | $11,700 | 10 | 8 | 20 | 22 | 11 | 10 | 20 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 11 |
| Kyle Busch | $9,700 | 16 | 9 | 19 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 5 | 8 | 17 |
| Brad Keselowski | $14,000 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 20 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 19 | 11 |
| Austin Dillon | $8,200 | 28 | 11 | 20 | 22 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 11 | 6 | 24 | 16 |
| Kyle Larson | $7,500 | 14 | 12 | -- | -- | 24 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -- | 23 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $7,300 | 28 | 13 | 10 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 9 | 11 | 20 | 32 | 12 | 16 |
| Aric Almirola | $12,000 | 16 | 14 | 28 | 20 | 14 | 8 | 19 | 27 | 21 | 32 | 25 | 16 |
| Kurt Busch | $10,500 | 25 | 15 | 21 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 27 | 14 | 7 | 25 | 16 | 17 |
| Kevin Harvick | $9,200 | 18 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 12 | 38 | 19 | 18 | 9 | 6 | 22 | 20 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $11,000 | 20 | 17 | 38 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 17 | 11 |
| Ross Chastain | $4,500 | 66 | 18 | -- | -- | 32 | 27 | 19 | 22 | 18 | 12 | 29 | 15 |
| Daniel Suarez | $3,500 | 66 | 19 | 24 | 27 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 22 | 21 | 34 | 17 | -- |
| Tyler Reddick | $9,500 | 33 | 20 | 15 | 13 | -- | -- | 30 | 20 | 18 | 26 | 16 | 18 |
| Chris Buescher | $6,800 | 50 | 21 | 8 | 15 | 18 | 19 | 10 | 18 | 10 | 30 | 18 | 13 |
| Erik Jones | $7,000 | 50 | 22 | 10 | 23 | 21 | 13 | 25 | 17 | 26 | 38 | 15 | 23 |
| Michael McDowell | $5,500 | 50 | 23 | 30 | 21 | 18 | 38 | 20 | 18 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 23 |
| Bubba Wallace | $6,500 | 25 | 24 | 13 | 15 | 28 | 38 | 17 | 32 | 21 | 12 | 15 | 26 |
| Chase Briscoe | $6,000 | 80 | 25 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 25 | 24 | 26 | 22 | -- | -- |
| Corey LaJoie | $4,000 | 100 | 26 | 32 | 26 | 25 | 22 | 28 | 28 | 31 | 14 | 25 | 26 |
| Cole Custer | $7,500 | 66 | 27 | 21 | 12 | -- | -- | 17 | 25 | 14 | 13 | 19 | 24 |
| Ryan Newman | $8,700 | 33 | 28 | 10 | 26 | 22 | 19 | 14 | 20 | 12 | 36 | 19 | 13 |
| Ryan Preece | $8,000 | 50 | 29 | 11 | 18 | 26 | 21 | 25 | 19 | 25 | 9 | 25 | 21 |
| Anthony Alfredo | $3,000 | 200 | 30 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 28 | 23 | 28 | 31 | -- | -- |
| B.J. McLeod | $2,000 | 500 | 31 | -- | 31 | -- | -- | 35 | 30 | 36 | 20 | -- | 34 |
| Quin Houff | $2,500 | 250 | 32 | 24 | 35 | -- | -- | 32 | 34 | 34 | 28 | 32 | 33 |
| Cody Ware | $2,500 | 500 | 33 | 23 | -- | -- | 31 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 22 | -- | -- |
| Justin Haley | $3,500 | 100 | 34 | 27 | -- | -- | 22 | 31 | 29 | 29 | -- | -- | 26 |
| Joey Gase | $2,500 | 500 | 35 | 26 | 36 | 34 | -- | 36 | 35 | -- | 20 | 37 | 34 |
| Josh Bilicki | $3,000 | 500 | 36 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 38 | 36 | 34 | 22 | 39 | -- |
| J.J. Yeley | $2,000 | 200 | 37 | -- | 39 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 40 | -- |
| Kaz Grala | $5,000 | 150 | 38 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 22 | -- | -- |
| Harrison Burton | $3,000 | 150 | 39 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Timmy Hill | $2,000 | 500 | 40 | 24 | 36 | -- | -- | 37 | 37 | 38 | -- | 35 | 26 |
The key here is to start at the bottom of the chart and work your way toward the front, digging into drivers who seem interesting along the way. One driver who won't stand out based on the sheet but is very in play is Kaz Grala ($5,000).
Grala is making just his third Cup Series start, this time driving for Kaulig Racing. Kaulig has only three Cup Series starts, but they're a competitive organization in the Xfinity Series. They did churn out a top-10 finish with AJ Allmendinger at the Daytona road course, and Justin Haley ($3,500) finished 13th with them in the 2020 Daytona 500. They've got the speed necessary to get a top-10 finish.
Grala also has talent on these tracks. In three Daytona races in the Xfinity or Camping World Truck Series, he has a win and three top-fives. He was also top-10 at Talladega in a truck last year. For $5,000 and starting in 38th, Grala makes abundant sense.
The range from 20th to 29th is littered with drivers who have flashed on this track type in the recent past. Ryan Newman ($8,700), Ryan Preece ($8,000), Chris Buescher ($6,800), and Corey LaJoie ($4,000) all have at least three top-10 finishes in eight pack tracks since the Cup Series ditched restrictor plates, Michael McDowell ($5,500) won this year's Daytona 500, Tyler Reddick ($9,500) and Erik Jones ($7,000) have recent pack-racing wins (in either the Cup Series or Xfinity Series), and Bubba Wallace ($6,500) has a pair of top-fives at Daytona. Based on what last year showed us, this is a great range to pepper for your core plays, even though it will lead to leaving gobs of salary on the table.