We've got a clear edict this week in NASCAR DFS. We need upside, and we need lots of it.
With 400 laps in Sunday's Drydene 400, there are 40.0 FanDuel points available for laps led. As outlined in this week's track preview, a healthy chunk of those are likely to wind up in the perfect lineup.
Luckily for us, we have good data to determine who will be in contention.
Dover is the sixth oval race this year to feature the 750-horsepower package. The other five have largely been at very different tracks, but there has been heavy overlap in which drivers have run out front and finished well.
The data from those previous five races is included in the current form section below. The other race included is last year's playoff race at Bristol. It was a different season, so teams have changed, but it was the other most recent race on a high-banked, concrete track. With Bristol being the closest comp to Dover, it made sense to dabble in those waters, as well.
As always, the data included is each driver's average running position during the race rather than where they finished. Martin Truex Jr. ($14,000 on FanDuel) dominated the Bristol dirt race this spring, leading almost half the laps. He had a second-place average running position. However, he cut a tire late and finished 19th. The finish there fails to reflect his dominance and undersells what we should expect out of him at Dover.
The other data listed is each driver's FanDuel salary, starting position, and win odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. The win odds are in fractional form, so Truex's listing of 3.5 means he's +350 to win.
| Current Form | Track History | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Driver | FD Salary | Win Odds | Start | Darlington | Richmond | Martinsville | Bristol Dirt | Phoenix | Bristol Concrete | 2020 Race 2 | 2020 Race 1 | 2019 Race 2 | 2019 Race 1 |
| Martin Truex,Jr. | $14,000 | 3.5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Denny Hamlin | $13,000 | 5.5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 19 |
| William Byron | $10,300 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 25 | 6 | 20 | 10 | 12 |
| Kyle Larson | $13,500 | 4.5 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 8 | 27 | 11 | -- | -- | -- | 3 | 5 |
| Kevin Harvick | $11,500 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 4 |
| Kyle Busch | $12,000 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 21 | 18 | 5 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 11 |
| Ryan Blaney | $9,500 | 20 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 14 | 5 | 14 | 16 | 10 |
| Chase Elliott | $12,500 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 4 | 39 | 11 | 37 | 3 |
| Joey Logano | $10,500 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 36 | 9 |
| Chris Buescher | $7,000 | 150 | 10 | 12 | 26 | 16 | 13 | 23 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 27 | 23 |
| Christopher Bell | $9,000 | 28 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 28 | 9 | 14 | 23 | 21 | -- | -- |
| Tyler Reddick | $7,800 | 50 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 21 | 10 | 16 | 14 | -- | -- |
| Ryan Newman | $5,800 | 150 | 13 | 14 | 28 | 14 | 7 | 27 | 26 | 22 | 19 | 23 | 20 |
| Austin Dillon | $8,300 | 66 | 14 | 18 | 10 | 14 | 21 | 21 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 20 | 18 |
| Brad Keselowski | $11,000 | 12 | 15 | 20 | 10 | 16 | 18 | 4 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 7 |
| Alex Bowman | $10,000 | 20 | 16 | 14 | 8 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 13 | 10 | 24 | 6 | 7 |
| Chase Briscoe | $5,500 | 250 | 17 | 15 | 23 | 24 | 22 | 19 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $8,000 | 66 | 18 | 15 | 11 | 17 | 19 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 17 | 12 | 19 |
| Ross Chastain | $5,000 | 250 | 19 | 15 | 16 | 24 | 32 | 20 | -- | -- | -- | 32 | 31 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $6,300 | 200 | 20 | 23 | 18 | 19 | 11 | 12 | 39 | 37 | 12 | 17 | 26 |
| Michael McDowell | $6,000 | 250 | 21 | 25 | 27 | 26 | 22 | 24 | 20 | 25 | 23 | 25 | 24 |
| Bubba Wallace | $5,200 | 200 | 22 | 22 | 24 | 16 | 12 | 16 | 17 | 20 | 22 | 22 | 28 |
| Erik Jones | $6,200 | 200 | 23 | 17 | 23 | 21 | 13 | 17 | 12 | 21 | 16 | 9 | 10 |
| Daniel Suarez | $6,700 | 200 | 24 | 23 | 18 | 25 | 4 | 24 | 27 | 27 | 29 | 17 | 13 |
| Ryan Preece | $4,500 | 500 | 25 | 24 | 27 | 26 | 15 | 25 | 19 | 24 | 23 | 19 | 27 |
| Corey LaJoie | $3,000 | 1000 | 26 | 23 | 22 | 26 | 37 | 24 | 29 | 26 | 27 | 30 | 29 |
| Anthony Alfredo | $4,000 | 1000 | 27 | 27 | 32 | 27 | 38 | 36 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Kurt Busch | $8,500 | 50 | 28 | 30 | 15 | 17 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 39 | 10 | 16 |
| Justin Haley | $3,500 | 1000 | 29 | 28 | 38 | 30 | -- | 28 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Cole Custer | $6,500 | 200 | 30 | 31 | 25 | 24 | 22 | 19 | 21 | 10 | 14 | -- | -- |
| B.J. McLeod | $2,000 | 1000 | 31 | 31 | 30 | 34 | -- | 29 | -- | 31 | 36 | 32 | 36 |
| Aric Almirola | $7,500 | 100 | 32 | 37 | 12 | 21 | 35 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 16 | 13 |
| James Davison | $2,000 | 1000 | 33 | 32 | 35 | 33 | -- | 33 | 34 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Cody Ware | $2,500 | 1000 | 34 | 33 | 36 | 33 | 33 | 35 | -- | -- | -- | -- | 34 |
| Quin Houff | $2,500 | 1000 | 35 | 31 | 34 | 31 | 28 | 33 | 31 | 34 | 35 | -- | 36 |
| Garrett Smithley | $2,000 | 1000 | 36 | -- | 33 | -- | -- | 35 | 35 | 36 | 36 | 34 | -- |
| Josh Bilicki | $2,500 | 1000 | 37 | 33 | 37 | 31 | 32 | 35 | 39 | 33 | 33 | -- | -- |
You can see why the win odds for Truex and Denny Hamlin ($13,000) are so short. They've scorched the field in the 750 package this year, and they should be top of mind when hunting for lap-leaders.
Another key for this weekend is identifying mid-range plays who can potentially push for a win. Having a third lap-leader boosts the upside of your lineup in a big way. Four drivers who stand out there are Joey Logano ($10,500), William Byron ($10,300), Ryan Blaney ($9,500), and Christopher Bell ($9,000).
Logano, Byron, and Blaney stand out because of what they have done in the 750 package. They rank third, fourth, and fifth, respectively in aggregate average running position on the 750-horsepower ovals this year, trailing just Truex and Hamlin. All three rank inside the top seven in projected average running position in my model and have win odds of at least 4.5% in my simulations. They're all drivers we should target, even if it means punting with the fifth slot on our roster.
As for Bell, this involves a bit of projection because we've never seen him at Dover in the Cup Series with Joe Gibbs Racing. However, when he ran the concrete tracks in the Xfinity Series, he was hard to beat. He won two of four Xfinity races at Dover and added a win and a runner-up in four races at Bristol. He has had a top-11 average running position in 4 of the 5 ovals using this package, so a win is fully within his range of outcomes this weekend.
When you're looking for those potential punts, two drivers to consider are Cole Custer ($6,500) and Chase Briscoe ($5,500). Briscoe finally showed life last week with an 11th-place finish, tying the best mark of his rookie season. He's another guy who ran well on concrete in the Xfinity Series, winning in both Dover and Bristol last year with an additional pair of runner-up finishes at Bristol throughout his career. His $5,500 salary moves the needle a decent amount.
Custer is starting back in 30th, which increases the wiggle room in rostering him. His current form is rough, but he ran well at Dover last year with a top-14 average running position in both races. He was Bell's main Xfinity competition at Dover in 2019, and it was Custer who beat Bell in the fall race that year. It is a leap of faith given Custer's rough current form, but for $6,500 and a low spot in the starting order, he's worth decent exposure.