In theory, the idea of filling out NASCAR DFS lineups with no track history data should be daunting. Each track is unique, and some drivers are better suited for certain tracks than they are others. Track history can be valuable.
For this week at Road America, the slight downsides of that are more than made up for elsewhere.
This is the first time the Cup Series has been to Elkhart Lake since 1956, so, in a shock to everyone, there's no track history data to look at, unless you count the Xfinity Series. However, it is the fourth road-course race of 2021 -- the most in a single year in a very long time -- and we will get practice data on Saturday. Those are two mighty fine crutches.
The practice data and the starting grid aren't available yet, as of this publishing. The starting order will be set on Sunday, which does throw a wrench in things for DFS this week. We can, though, get a head start on the rest of the data so we know whom we should monitor over the weekend. (NOTE: Practice data from Saturday has been added along with the starting order. Only a handful of drivers logged five-lap averages in practice, and those five-lap averages were tainted by discrepancies in tire strategy. As a result, only single-lap times have been included. Additionally, both Kyle Busch ($12,500) and Ryan Preece ($5,000) wrecked in practice and will go to backup cars. They will still qualify on Sunday and receive an official starting position, but they will begin the race in the back of the field.)
That data is laid out below, sorted into road-course history and current form. The current form section is the six oval races this year that have been run in the 750-horsepower package excluding the Bristol dirt race. That's the race that had the loosest tie to performance in other road-course races this year, so it got the boot.
As always, the data listed is each driver's average running position rather than their finish. A good example of why we'd go this route comes from Chase Elliott ($14,500 on FanDuel) at Daytona. There, he led more than half the race and had a fifth-place average running position. He spun late, though, and finished 21st. That finish sells him short and doesn't illustrate how much of a force he can be on road courses while the fifth-place average running position does.
The other data listed is each driver's FanDuel salary and win odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. The win odds are in fractional form, so Elliott being listed at 3.1 means he's +310 to win.
| Practice | Road Course History | Current Form | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Driver | FD Salary | Win Odds | Starting | Single Lap | Sonoma | COTA | Daytona 2021 | Charlotte 2020 | Daytona 2020 | Nashville | Dover | Darlington | Richmond | Martinsville | Phoenix |
| William Byron | $11,200 | 19 | 1 | 11 | 15 | 18 | 15 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 11 |
| Kyle Larson | $14,000 | 2.9 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -- | -- | 1 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 8 | 11 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | $8,900 | 25 | 3 | 7 | -- | 14 | 17 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Tyler Reddick | $7,200 | 55 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 14 | 25 | 16 | 23 | 19 | 13 | 7 | 15 | 15 | 21 |
| Austin Cindric | $8,700 | 23 | 5 | 3 | -- | 10 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | 26 | -- | -- |
| Denny Hamlin | $12,000 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 4 | 19 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | $6,900 | 150 | 7 | 20 | 19 | 17 | 27 | 21 | 15 | 19 | 24 | 15 | 11 | 17 | 14 |
| Ross Chastain | $7,400 | 55 | 8 | 13 | 14 | 10 | 30 | -- | -- | 10 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 24 | 20 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | $13,000 | 9.5 | 9 | 19 | 7 | 25 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| Alex Bowman | $10,000 | 24 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 15 | 17 | 11 | 23 | 15 | 6 | 14 | 8 | 14 | 17 |
| Daniel Suarez | $6,300 | 130 | 11 | 28 | 18 | 35 | 19 | 26 | 26 | 15 | 14 | 23 | 18 | 25 | 24 |
| Chris Buescher | $7,300 | 75 | 12 | 21 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 20 | 16 | 31 | 13 | 12 | 26 | 16 | 23 |
| Christopher Bell | $9,000 | 35 | 13 | 8 | 17 | 30 | 6 | 11 | 15 | 14 | 21 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 9 |
| Joey Logano | $11,800 | 14 | 14 | 22 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 2 |
| Cole Custer | $5,400 | 150 | 15 | 16 | 20 | 30 | 12 | 18 | 22 | 21 | 18 | 31 | 25 | 24 | 19 |
| Kurt Busch | $8,500 | 19 | 16 | 1 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 30 | 15 | 17 | 14 |
| Ryan Blaney | $10,200 | 31 | 17 | 4 | 16 | 23 | 21 | 12 | 14 | 37 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 5 |
| Michael McDowell | $7,700 | 75 | 18 | 23 | 16 | 11 | 20 | 20 | 11 | 21 | 25 | 25 | 27 | 26 | 24 |
| Aric Almirola | $6,600 | 200 | 19 | 27 | 21 | 23 | 17 | 21 | 16 | 6 | 22 | 37 | 12 | 21 | 14 |
| Brad Keselowski | $11,400 | 47 | 20 | 25 | 13 | 22 | 16 | 9 | 15 | 18 | 11 | 20 | 10 | 16 | 4 |
| Erik Jones | $4,900 | 150 | 21 | 32 | 15 | 20 | 21 | 11 | 13 | 18 | 22 | 17 | 23 | 21 | 17 |
| Justin Haley | $2,500 | 200 | 22 | 30 | -- | 36 | 30 | -- | -- | 32 | -- | 28 | 38 | 30 | 28 |
| Corey LaJoie | $3,800 | 200 | 23 | 24 | 21 | 18 | 27 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 23 | 22 | 26 | 24 |
| Anthony Alfredo | $3,000 | 200 | 24 | 29 | 24 | 22 | 30 | -- | -- | 22 | 28 | 27 | 32 | 27 | 36 |
| Kevin Harvick | $11,000 | 31 | 25 | 17 | 17 | 33 | 9 | 16 | 18 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 8 |
| James Davison | $2,500 | 200 | 26 | 33 | 27 | 32 | 28 | 30 | 31 | -- | 36 | 32 | 35 | 33 | 33 |
| Josh Bilicki | $2,500 | 200 | 27 | 36 | 30 | 30 | 32 | 31 | -- | 31 | 35 | 33 | 37 | 31 | 35 |
| Ryan Newman | $5,100 | 200 | 28 | 34 | 24 | 22 | 23 | 26 | 24 | 21 | 24 | 14 | 28 | 14 | 27 |
| Cody Ware | $2,800 | 200 | 29 | 31 | 30 | 28 | 30 | -- | -- | -- | 31 | 33 | 36 | 33 | 35 |
| Kyle Tilley | $2,500 | 200 | 30 | 35 | -- | 30 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Ryan Eversley | $2,500 | 200 | 31 | 38 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Ryan Preece | $5,000 | 170 | 32 | 40 | 25 | 12 | 18 | 15 | 20 | 26 | 22 | 24 | 27 | 26 | 25 |
| Quin Houff | $2,800 | 200 | 33 | 39 | 34 | 33 | 40 | 32 | 35 | 39 | 31 | 31 | 34 | 31 | 33 |
| Chase Elliott | $14,500 | 3.1 | 34 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| Chase Briscoe | $6,400 | 130 | 35 | 10 | 19 | 12 | 22 | -- | -- | 18 | 30 | 15 | 23 | 24 | 19 |
| Bubba Wallace | $4,200 | 200 | 36 | 18 | 27 | 31 | 25 | 19 | 20 | 23 | 15 | 22 | 24 | 16 | 16 |
| Austin Dillon | $7,000 | 150 | 37 | 15 | 19 | 19 | 14 | 22 | -- | 18 | 11 | 18 | 10 | 14 | 21 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $5,900 | 200 | 38 | 26 | 32 | 21 | 23 | 22 | 18 | 6 | 20 | 23 | 18 | 19 | 12 |
| Ty Dillon | $3,000 | 200 | 39 | 37 | -- | 22 | 26 | 19 | 22 | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Kyle Busch | $12,500 | 12 | 40 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 21 | 11 | 20 | 9 | 28 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 18 |
Two guys with limited data here worth discussing are A.J. Allmendinger ($8,900) and Austin Cindric ($8,700).
The reason the data is limited is that both guys are running a partial schedule in 2021. This will be Allmendinger's third race and Cindric's sixth. But both are in competitive equipment (as evidenced by their previous decent runs this year), and both can mop up on road courses.
In fact, the last time a NASCAR touring series was at Road America, it was those two battling for the win. Cindric got the checkered flag, one of three wins and eight top-fives in the past 10 Xfinity Series road-course races; Allmendinger also has three wins and eight top-fives in that span. Both drivers have had a top-14 average running position on a road course this year, making them fully worthy of consideration despite their lack of data.
Truthfully, that tier is just loaded. Christopher Bell ($9,000) is there, too, and he is both a winner at Road America (2019) and in the Cup Series this year (Daytona roval). Kurt Busch ($8,500) has a top-nine average running position in four of the past five road courses, and he has turned that into two top-five finishes and a sixth at Sonoma. Our goal should be to live in this tier as much as possible, even if that means checking out some punt plays if they allow us to get here without lowering our exposure to the studs.