NBA
Re-Drafting the 2006 NBA Draft Using Advanced Analytics
Which NBA teams would like to take back their draft pick in '06?

What Should've Happened

Now, if we sort the draft by players with the highest VORP over their first five NBA seasons, the results are almost completely different.

PickTeamPlayerVORPnERDWS/48WS
1Toronto RaptorsPaul Millsap31.558.7.15774.7
2Chicago BullsKyle Lowry27.534.9.14561.6
3Charlotte BobcatsRajon Rondo21.211.0.11551.6
4Portland Trail BlazersLaMarcus Aldridge20.960.4.15181.0
5Atlanta HawksRudy Gay16.7-15.9.08647.1
6Minnesota TimberwolvesBrandon Roy15.229.3.15537.4
7Boston CelticsThabo Sefolosha12.51.1.09732.4
8Houston RocketsRonnie Brewer10.716.3.12730.4
9Golden State WarriorsJ.J. Redick8.527.9.13443.1
10Seatte SupersonicsP.J. Tucker7.2-3.3.08818.1


When looking at the top of this list, there's quite a few notable names. From Paul Millsap to Rudy Gay, they've all had really good careers through 10-plus seasons. Each of them have at least 47 win shares to their name.

It turns out that in hindsight, Millsap would've been the best top overall pick for the Raptors. He's not only performed the best, but he'd also fill the power forward gap that's been missing since the departure of Chris Bosh.

Going from a player who could've been drafted by Toronto to one who's starting at point guard for them, Kyle Lowry went largely unnoticed out of Villanova and has performed as the second-best player in the draft class.

Thabo Sefolosha, J.J. Redick and P.J. Tucker have proven themselves to be valuable role players in the NBA, while Brandon Roy enjoyed a few star years in Portland before his knees gave out. It wouldn't have been too bad of a top 10 had it shaken out this way.

Prev Next

Related News

Re-Drafting the 2013 NBA Draft Using Advanced Analytics

Russell Peddle  --  Dec 1st, 2016

Re-Drafting the 2012 NBA Draft Using Advanced Analytics

Dale Redman  --  Dec 1st, 2016

Re-Drafting the 2011 NBA Draft Using Advanced Analytics

Brett Oswalt  --  Dec 1st, 2016