The leap in nERD between the 14th-ranked Milwaukee Bucks and the 13th-ranked Miami Heat is surprising...or is it? Remember, nERD is an efficiency metric, and during the second half of last season, when the Heat posted a historic record of 31-10, they were nothing if not efficient.
| Rank | Team | Projected 2017-18 nERD | 2016-17 Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Sacramento Kings | 44.5 | 32-50 |
| 19 | Denver Nuggets | 45.2 | 40-42 |
| 18 | New Orleans Pelicans | 46.0 | 34-48 |
| 17 | Memphis Grizzlies | 46.6 | 26-56 |
| 16 | Detroit Pistons | 46.9 | 37-45 |
| 15 | Portland Trail Blazers | 49.0 | 41-41 |
| 14 | Milwaukee Bucks | 49.6 | 42-40 |
| 13 | Miami Heat | 54.2 | 41-41 |
| 12 | Washington Wizards | 54.3 | 49-33 |
| 11 | Utah Jazz | 54.0 | 51-31 |
The Expected
Most of the middling teams from 2016-17 are, unsurprisingly, in the middle. At 41-41, the Portland Trail Blazers are probably the very definition of NBA mediocrity, circa today. Yes, Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum are a smashing backcourt -- some feel they're among the best in the league -- but the remainder of their supporting cast likely won't get them off the NBA's dreaded treadmill of mediocrity.
The Sacramento Kings are in an eternal state of rebuild -- bye-bye Boogie, hello Z-Bo -- but young'uns like Buddy Hield and Willie Cauley-Stein nudged them from the top of the bottom to the bottom of the middle.
The Unexpected
Fantasy players hear the name Giannis Antetokounmpo and -- after they're done drooling over his potential -- they figure, "This stat monster will take the Milwaukee Bucks to the promised land...or at least the top half of the East." With Jabari Parker's health status still up in the air, nERD places them in the middle of the middle.
With All-Star Paul Millsap now in the fold and point-center Nikola Jokic having another year of experience under his belt, many pegged the Denver Nuggets as their Western Conference surprise playoff squad. nERD disagrees, but if Jokic and Millsap can mesh their games, nobody will be shocked if the Nugs plow their way into the postseason.