Our models are very high on the scoring potential for both DeMar DeRozan and Kawhi Leonard in their new homes after the two switched places in San Antonio and Toronto.
These two are both some serious longshots to lead the league in scoring, but their betting odds more than capture that. Both priced at +5000 or higher, oddsmakers are implying that neither has even a 2% chance of winning the scoring title. Neither player cracks even the top-12 in betting odds, but our models expect both to be top-10 scorers this season.
Leonard Betting Odds (rank): +5000 (14th)
Leonard numberFire Points Per Game Projection (rank): 24.97 (9th)
After playing just nine games last season, Leonard looks to be fully healthy heading into his first campaign north of the border. He suited up for the Raptors' first preseason game and played 19 minutes.
The last time Leonard played a full season (2016-17), he dropped 25.5 points per game, which was good for ninth in the NBA. He posted a 31.1% usage rate that year and averaged 27.0 field goal attempts per 100 possessions. That's just about the size of the void DeRozan leaves in Toronto, having posted usage rates of 34.3% and 29.6% in his last two seasons along with averages of 29.9 and 25.7 field goal attempts per 100 possessions.
Kawhi is also a far more efficient scorer than DeRozan is. In his last two full seasons, Leonard posted true shooting percentages of 61.6% and 61.0%. DeRozan has never hit even the 56.0% mark in a season, and he finished at 55.2% and 55.5% in the last two years.
Getting our 9th-projected scorer priced at the 14th-best odds for the scoring title makes Kawhi a strong value as a longshot bet.
DeRozan Betting Odds (rank): +6500 (17th)
DeRozan numberFire Points Per Game Projection (rank): 24.40 (12th)
Leonard occupying a similar offensive role to DeRozan in his last full season means that DeRozan also shouldn't see his workload shrink much in San Antonio.
We saw the Spurs look pretty hungry for a primary scorer as they played without Kawhi last year. Rudy Gay ranked second on the team in usage rate (24.6%), but he's no longer a Spur. After Gay was the now-retired 40-year-old Manu Ginobili in third at 21.5%. Even LaMarcus Aldridge's 29.1% mark was elevated from the 25.9% and 24.5% clips he posted in his first two seasons in San Antonio, during which he was playing with Leonard.
DeRozan has dropped at least 23.0 points per game in three straight seasons, and the 2016-17 campaign saw him post a career-best 27.3 points per night -- fifth in the NBA.
Our models account for him playing 77 games this season, and while we do have him ranked better in total points (9th) than in points per game (12th), that's still much better than his 17th-ranked betting odds.
He's got the longest odds of all the bets in this article, and three players that we don't even project to finish top-15 in scoring have shorter odds than DeMar.