The new-look Dallas Mavericks are on the rise, the Houston Rockets continue to regain their contender status, and both the Charlotte Hornets and Minnesota Timberwolves slip to the lower side of the middle.
| Ranking | Team | Record | nERD | Last Ranking | Plus/Minus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Miami Heat | 24-25 | 49.5 | 19 | 0 |
| 19 | Charlotte Hornets | 24-26 | 49.5 | 15 | -4 |
| 18 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 25-26 | 49.8 | 16 | -2 |
| 17 | Brooklyn Nets | 28-25 | 50.3 | 17 | 0 |
| 16 | Dallas Mavericks | 23-28 | 50.4 | 20 | 4 |
| 15 | Los Angeles Clippers | 28-24 | 51.1 | 17 | 2 |
| 13 | Los Angeles Lakers | 27-25 | 52.3 | 13 | 0 |
| 13 | Houston Rockets | 29-21 | 52.3 | 14 | 1 |
| 12 | New Orleans Pelicans | 23-29 | 52.5 | 12 | 0 |
| 11 | Portland Trail Blazers | 32-20 | 55.4 | 11 | 0 |
Risers
The Dallas Mavericks have won three of their last four and reinforcements are on the way. Before anyone gets too excited about the present, however, they should keep in mind that Kristaps Porzingis is coming off an ACL injury and might not play at all this year, while his new team in Dallas still sits four and a half games out of a playoff spot with a mere 8.2% chance of making it, according to our algorithm. A future with Porzingis and Luka Doncic is promising, but temper expectations for this year.
The Houston Rockets are tied for the league's second-best record since December 11th at 18-7, and now sit sixth in the Western Conference with an overall mark of 29-21. They've sprinkled in six losses over their last 13, but recent wins against the Golden State Warriors, Denver Nuggets, and Toronto Raptors suggest they are very much back to normal after a shaky start to the season.
Fallers
The Charlotte Hornets are 2-3 over their last five with a -10.1 net rating over that span. Granted, those losses came against top-tier teams like the Indiana Pacers, Milwaukee Bucks, and Toronto Raptors, but it doesn't change the fact that the Hornets have now slipped to eighth in the Eastern Conference, with only a two-game lead on the ninth-place Detroit Pistons. We still give them a fairly decent 75.0% chance of making the postseason, but teams like the Washington Wizards (35.5%) and the aforementioned Pistons (20.2%) are lurking.
At 25-26, the Minnesota Timberwolves are still sniffing around a postseason opportunity, but we only give them a 15.7% chance of making it at this point. They only sit two and a half games out, but would have to leapfrog three different teams to get there (including the Los Angeles Lakers, who have LeBron James and might get Anthony Davis).