FanDuel Price: $12,000

Our models have James Harden as the top play tonight, projecting him for 57.2 FanDuel points, nearly 3 points more than any other player.

Harden is never going to truly fly under the radar, but there's a chance he sees a little less ownership than usual for this one. For starters, the matchup against the Denver Nuggets is a tough one as Denver has held the shooting guard position to just 36.99 FanDuel points per game over their last 15 games, the fourth-lowest mark in the league. Secondly, Harden is coming off a pair of underwhelming games, totaling 47.5 and 37.6 FanDuel points in his past two.

The 37.6-point game was a blowout win in which Harden saw just 29 minutes, his fewest minutes in a game this month. The 47.5-point outing came in a game in which he shot just 9 of 26 from the field, including 1 for 9 from three. It was the first time in March that Harden made only one triple in a game.

In short, the past two games have been huge outliers. In the two games before those, Harden went nuts for 76.9 and 86.4 FanDuel points. In his previous matchups with the Nuggets this season, Harden has gone for 54.7, 59.0 and 52.5 FanDuel points. He's got a huge ceiling in a game where the Houston Rockets are carrying a 111.0-point implied total, and going by our projections (as of Thursday morning), Harden is the best point-per-dollar value among players priced at $8,600 and above.