There were so many series-defining moments in the final seconds of this game. If LeBron hadn't vetoed David Blatt's play call, if the refs had caught Blatt trying to call a final timeout he didn't have on the inbounds, or if the above fall-away, foot-on-the-line corner jumper by LeBron hadn't gone down, the swing in this series would have been enormous. Instead, the shot fell and LeBron reminded us that he is
Much like Game 3, this was a back-and-forth contest, with nine ties and six lead changes. There weren't as many shifts in odds as in Game 3, but both teams swapped win probabilities of 80% or higher during the game. Cleveland even peaked at over 95% with 41 seconds to go and an 84-79 lead, before a Jimmy Butler three and Derrick Rose driving layup tied things up at 84-84 with nine seconds remaining.
But the Cavaliers ultimately won on the LeBron shot for the biggest swing in odds of the entire weekend. Let's just say that Derrick Rose's Game 3 heroics were properly avenged by the one they call "the King."
Odds because the Cavaliers won:
| Team | Wins | Series | East Champs | Finals Champs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cavaliers | 2 | 56.05% | 30.74% | 10.01% |
| Bulls | 2 | 43.95% | 23.69% | 7.47% |
By winning Game 4 and reclaiming homecourt advantage for the three remaining contests, the Cavaliers also reclaimed their odds of winning the series (from 33.03% after a Game 3 loss to 56.05% currently), while nearly doubling their odds of both making the Finals (from 16.51% to 30.74%) and potentially winning the championship (from 5.03% to 10.01%).
So, what if LeBron's shot hadn't gone down and the Bulls had gone on to win in overtime? Well, brace yourselves, Chicago fans.
Odds if the Bulls had won:
| Team | Wins | Series | East Champs | Finals Champs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cavaliers | 1 | 14.67% | 8.11% | 2.66% |
| Bulls | 3 | 85.33% | 45.90% | 13.63% |
If the Bulls had won Game 4 and taken a 3-1 series lead (something they still had an 80% chance of doing with a 68-61 lead heading into the fourth quarter), they would've upped their chances of winning the series to a commanding 85.33%, their chances of making the Finals to 45.90% (almost double the next best Eastern team, the Hawks, at 25.40%), and brought their title odds to a season-high 13.63% (the best of any Eastern Conference team by a long shot).
Instead, the LeBron shot went down, and the Bulls saw their odds of winning the series drop by a crippling 41.38%, the East by 22.21%, and the title by 6.16% -- less than 48 hours after the Derrick Rose game winner went in and their odds hit their highest peak.
What a roller coaster of a weekend.