We’re roughly two weeks into the NBA season, and it’s officially time to panic!
No, no. I’m kidding, of course.
Luckily for you, there are suckers in almost every league that think this way at the start of each year. If a big-time star has a few down weeks in March, it barely makes a dent in his overall ranking, and it hardly registers a blip on the radar. At the beginning of the year, however, a top-tier draft pick has a few bad games, panic ensues, and owners go into full-blown damage control mode, selling off their studs for pennies on the dollar.
This is your time to shine, savvy owners.
Undeniably, "buying low" and "selling high" comes with some inherent risk. You could always be unfortunate enough to buy a player who is actually falling off a cliff in their production, or sell a player who is in the midst of a breakout campaign.
These are risks that come with playing the game, my friends. You know what they say: Nothing ventured, nothing gained; you should strike while the iron is hot (insert other random business-related clichés that relate to fantasy sports). There’s rarely a better feeling in fantasy sports than buying or selling a players stock at exactly the right time. More often than not, it’s worth the risk.
Here are this week’s fantasy assists, admittedly heavy on the “buy†side. I could probably list 30-40 guys you should be shopping for, but I’ve included simply my best-bets-for-a-bounce-back buys (mostly to accentuate how much I believe in these particular buy-lows, but also as an excuse to use that awesome alliteration).
Buy Larry Sanders
In the last week, basketballmonster.com’s player ranker. I’m not afraid to admit that I have no idea who those three players are.
Considering how stellar D-Rose looked in the preseason, I’m not the least bit worried about him regaining early-round value in a hurry. His usage rate is still as high as it ever was at 31.1 (compared to 32.2 in his MVP year). His shot will start falling at a better rate soon and the peripherals will increase as he gets more comfortable jumping into passing lanes and chasing down blocks.
When basketballmonster.com. Looking at his numbers, he averaged 11.9 points, 6.0 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.6 blocks, 1.1 3s, with 1.1 turnovers on .494 shooting from the field and .825 from the line. None of these numbers scream must-start on their own, but there are simply no holes in that stat line. The turnovers are low, the percentages are solid, and any player that averages a combined 3.4 steals/blocks/3s can be extremely valuable.
Leonard is hovering around the same averages this year with 13.0 points, 5.6 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.4 blocks, 0.6 threes, 1.4 turnovers, on .527 shooting from the field and .818 from the line. His usage rate is up from 16.4 to 19.4 this year and many are predicting that he will become even more the focal point of the Spurs as the season wears on. He was removed from the starting lineup on Sunday for matchup purposes against the Knicks, but don’t panic over a perceived slow start and isolated benching. He’s all set to be a player that makes “the leap†this year, like Paul George did last year. If anything, try to convince another owner that he’s not going to break out and buy low.
The same goes for Danny Green. He was getting dropped all over the place after starting out the season averaging only 8.7 points and 1.0 threes (down from 2.2 last year) on .375 shooting from the field and .300 from long range. Again, stay the course. He blew up for 24 points, 10 rebounds, 6 threes, 1 steal, and 1 block on 8 of 11 shooting from the field on Sunday against the Knicks. He’ll be fine.
Sell Arron Afflalo
Arron Afflalo has upped his scoring average in every single year of his six as a pro. He has continued that trend in his seventh season by jumping up to an average of 19.7 points through the Magic’s first seven games. He’s also averaging career bests in rebounds (5.1), assists (4.4), steals (1.0), and threes (2.3).
While the evidence is clearly there to suggest that Afflalo is capable of improving his game and sustaining improved numbers, this year’s situation is destined for a regression to the mean. First of all, he is shooting threes at an unsustainable clip of .471 (career average of .385).
He is also an NBA veteran on a team that is clearly promoting a youth movement. When Tobias Harris comes back from injury and as rookie sensation Victor Oladipo proves he deserves more minutes and touches, Afflalo’s career high usage rating of 24.1 will likely see a dip, followed by the rest of his numbers.
Another possible outcome could see Afflalo flipped to a contender, where he’d be a highly valued shooter and defender. If sent to a situation with more seasoned weapons, his numbers would likely drop off as well. Regardless, this is probably a good chance to sell high on Afflalo and see what you can net in return. Whether traded or kept, he’s not likely to stay the number one option on any team.
Add Markieff Morris
Markieff Morris is turning heads off the bench in Phoenix. After scoring just 6 points in each of the first two games of the season, Markieff has gone for 17, 23, 28, and 23 in his last four games. He’s also managed to average 8.0 rebounds and 2.0 steals in that span.
Despite two lackluster games to start the year, Morris still managed to put up an impressive 16.6 nERD (stat explained here) over his first six games, good enough for 7th on our NBA Player Rankings.
He has come off the bench in every game for Phoenix this season, but is seriously challenging for a spot in the starting lineup. If this development continues, he will have the chance to put up big numbers in Phoenix and could be a valuable pickup down the road. He is a versatile stretch four that can put up points and rebounds while contributing a few threes for good measure.
Just make sure you’re getting the right M. Morris on Phoenix, as his twin brother Marcus also plays there and isn’t performing as well. Perhaps Markieff hogged the basketball gene they split between them.
Drop Omer Asik
Omer Asik was a great pickup for the Rockets last year, as they stole him away from his reserve role in Chicago and featured him as their starting C. He broke out to the tune of 10.1 points, 11.7 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks, shooting .541 from the field. He finished first in the league in total rebounds (956) and second in total rebound percentage (22.0).
He would be in line to continue those impressive numbers this year, if not for the fact that GM Daryl Morey picked up an even newer and shinier toy at C in Dwight Howard. Asik is still second in the league in rebound percentage (behind Dwight), so in theory, they should make for an unstoppable duo. The only problem is that they don’t really work all that well together on offense and sort of get in the way of each other. The most likely outcome of all this, whether Asik starts or comes off the bench, is that he plays fewer minutes to make room for Dwight.
Through seven games, Asik is averaging only 5.9 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 0.6 blocks. Although the rebounds and field goal percentage (.520) are nice, those numbers aren’t really worth a roster spot in standard leagues. Keep an eye on him if he gets traded to a less crowded front court, but for now he’s safely droppable.
Add Patrick Beverley
Patrick Beverley was considered by many to be a sleeper in fantasy drafts this season. People who drafted him in the late rounds were rewarded with news that he would start the season as the Rockets’ starting PG, having seemingly beaten out Jeremy Lin for the job.
Unfortunately, Beverley's season hit a speed bump when he suffered a torn muscle in his midsection during the first game of the season. He was originally expected to miss roughly two weeks of action, but rewarded patient owners by coming back after missing only three games.
He is working his way back from a scary-sounding injury, so he deserves some leeway while he gets back into shape. For proof that he should be owned in all leagues, look no further than his last game on Saturday. He managed to start and play almost 38 minutes (often playing alongside Lin), totaling 19 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 4 steals, and 3 threes. He shouldn’t be on any waiver wires.
Buy Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter
When Utah let Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap walk during free agency this past summer, it was obvious that they saw Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter as their big men to build around. They both had drool-inducing per-36 numbers last year (Favors at 14.6 points, 11.0 rebounds, 1.3 steals, 2.6 blocks and Kanter at 16.9 points, 10.2 rebounds, 0.9 blocks, and 1.1 blocks) and proved that they could produce whenever they got the call to start.
They’re both off to decent starts this year, but are not ranking very high due to small shortcomings. Favors is only shooting at .417 (career .494) and Kanter isn’t offering much on the defensive end (0.1 steals and 0.6 blocks). Both those deficiencies are a good bet to improve and it won’t be long before they’re performing at a level that justifies their mid-round ADP.
There is no one in Utah to challenge them for minutes and at 0-7, the Jazz are clearly going to spend the year developing their twin towers and the rest of their young core. Buy these upcoming bigs while their price is still reasonable.
Add Isaiah Thomas
Isaiah Thomas is coming off the bench for the Kings. Greivis Vasquez, who came over from the Hornets/Pelicans in the Tyreke Evans sign-and-trade deal, became the starter by default behind his averages of 13.9 points, 4.3 rebounds, 9.0 assists, and 1.1 threes last season.
In six games this season, Thomas and Vasquez have put up eerily similar numbers:
Player | Minutes | FG% | FT% | 3s | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Steals | Turnovers |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Isaiah Thomas | 27:19 | .473 | .886 | 1.2 | 18.0 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 0.7 | 2.5 |
Greivis Vasquez | 27:19 | .463 | .867 | 0.5 | 9.0 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 0.3 | 1.2 |
The only difference that really jumps out is that Thomas is scoring exactly twice as much as Vasquez without giving up anything else in any other category (with the exception of assist-to-turnover ratio, which will likely fluctuate). If you watch the games, he also seems to have a better chemistry with DeMarcus Cousins, the Kings’ franchise player.
If all this leads to a starting lineup change and starter minutes for Isaiah Thomas, he could really have a breakout year. Even if he stays on the bench, he could continue to put up good numbers and make a case for Sixth Man of the Year honours. Either way, he’s worth a roster spot.