NBA

​The Cavaliers Haven't Been Favored for a Single Second of the NBA Finals

Russell Peddle  —  @rustypedalbike Jun 5th, 2017
According to our algorithms, the Warriors have been the favorite to win for every second of both games played to this point. What are their updated chances of going 16-0?

The Golden State Warriors have completely dominated this year’s NBA Finals against the Cleveland Cavaliers, and that might even be an understatement.

The Warriors won the first two games in Oakland by a total of 41 points. Over the 96 minutes played over those two contests, Cleveland spent only 6:16 with the lead (early in both games), the two teams were tied for 4:11, and the Warriors led for a whopping 85:33 of game time. The Cavaliers haven’t even led for a single second beyond the opening frame of either game.

And our win probability graphs -- via numberFire Live -- for both games show the story of one team completely outplaying the other.

Here’s Game 1:

Warriors-Cavaliers Game 1 WP Graph

The Warriors opened Game 1 as 77.01% favorites to win, and the closest Cleveland ever got to flipping the script was when a Kyrie Irving jumper made the score 12-8 in favor of the Cavs at the 7:15 mark in the first quarter. At that point, the Cavaliers win probability peaked at 33.08%.

By the time a Stephen Curry three pushed the lead to 73-52 in favor of Golden Stat with 8:07 to go in the third quarter, the Warriors were already 97.40% favorites to win the game and never really looked back.

Game 2 was more of the same:

Warriors-Cavaliers WP Graph Game 2

The Warriors opened Game 2 as strong 80.82% favorites. The Cavaliers’ win probability peaked even earlier in this one, when a LeBron James defensive rebound at the 9:44 mark in the first quarter pushed their win probability to 32.82% with an 11-6 lead and over 95% of the game left to be played.

LeBron then missed a layup, and the Warriors once again remained the heavy favorite throughout, hitting a 92.13% win probability as early as the 8:41 mark of the third quarter.

And with that, the closest the Cavaliers have come to being favored to win even a game in this series was when they had a 12-8 lead and 33.08% win probability not even halfway through the first quarter of Game 1.

Suddenly, a series we were once trying to convince ourselves could be competitive looks all but over.

Teams that go up 2-0 in a playoff series in the NBA have an all-time record of 262-18 (.936), including a 28-4 (.875) mark in the Finals. Of course, of those few teams that have come back, few were facing a team as dominant as these Warriors, who are making a serious case to be considered the best team ever assembled.

As far as our algorithms are concerned, the Warriors now have a 92.64% chance of winning the title, and a their chances of doing so in a sweep -- and thus completing a historically unprecedented 16-0 playoff run -- now sit at 31.17%.

If they can pull that off, their “best team ever” case might not even be much of a debate.