The Toronto Raptors are an NBA franchise that has been middling in mediocrity for much of their existence. Now in their 19th NBA season, they can only claim four winning seasons, five playoff appearances, one playoff series win, and a combined winning percentage of .409.

Most of the team’s best draft choices bolted when they got the chance (Damon Stoudemire, Marcus Camby, Tracy McGrady, and eventually Four Factors (effective field goal percentage, turnover ratio, rebounding percentage, and free throw rate) have become a standard way for predicting a team’s ability to be successful and sustain that success. Here’s a breakdown of the Raptors over their last 14 games:

They’re fairly middle of the pack on the offensive side of these stats, but their bread is clearly buttered on the defensive end. Dwane Casey, the NBA’s reigning Eastern Conference Coach of the Month, has his squad performing at a high level on defense and it’s paying dividends. Being a net positive in three of these four categories, as a result of solid defensive numbers, is a positive sign for a chance at future success.

It's also worth mentioning that they were top 10 on the defensive side of all four of these categories before Sunday's tilt with the Heat, resulting in net positives across the board. There are no obvious shortcomings here either, as they rank in the middle or top of each category on both sides of the ball. Not many teams can claim those kind of numbers and what the Raps have accomplished should not be overlooked.

These stats might not make them stand out as a championship contender, but they certainly qualify them as one of the best teams in the lowly Eastern Conference (I’m running out of adjectives to describe the East and Atlantic Division as bad, so forgive me if I’m getting repetitive). They are currently fourth in the East with a record of 16-16. They are one of only four teams with a record of .500 or better in the conference and are currently only half a game behind the third-place Hawks. They sit atop the otherwise terrible Atlantic Division by four games and we project them as the most likely team to win that banner by a considerable margin.

All this while having easily the hardest schedule of any Eastern Conference team. Their strength of schedule of .536 so far this season ranks them third in the league (first in the East), with the next highest Eastern team being the Knicks at seventeenth in the league with .491. Even more impressive, over every team’s last 10 games, the Raptors have had the second hardest schedule, but have still managed to come out 7-3 over that span.

Basically, they haven’t been lucky. They’ve been good. Period. Everyone has stepped up.

It’s the Personnel, Don’t Take it Personally

It’s hard not to single out the subtraction of Rudy Gay as the reason for the turnaround. The proof is in the statistical pudding (Mmm…statistical pudding). Before the trade, Rudy Gay was shooting a team-high 18.6 shots per game and led the team with a 30.5 usage rating. What was he doing with all the team’s shots? Amassing a terrible effective field goal percentage of .421 and a true shooting percentage of .468.

Since the trade, some key trends have emerged. First of all, the Raptors went from having the league’s worst assist percentage over their first 18 games (49.2) to having its eighth best over their last 14 (60.2). Gay’s absence obviously has a lot to do with that, but it’s also largely due to the fact that the team now has a very competent one-two punch of starting and backup PG in Kyle Lowry and recently pointed out, the NBA might currently have too many bad teams in it (particularly in the East), to allow a team to drop low enough in the standings for a top lottery pick at this point in the season. Even a bad record doesn’t guarantee a savior like Wiggins, just more ping pong balls and a slightly better shot at him. What’s the other choice?

Why not win now? Shortly after the Gay trade, Lowry also started popping up in trade rumors and was almost dealt to the Knicks (until James Dolan got upset that he was getting a reputation as league whipping boy and facilitator for contract dumping). The trumped trade was perhaps a blessing in disguise as Lowry has been playing inspired ball and the team looks the most cohesive it has since their division title in the 2006-07 season.

With a team nERD of 55.2, the Raptors are currently 11th on our NBA Team Rankings and third in the East. A team’s nERD is a stat that evolves and predicts the team's final record based on many factors, regressions, simulations, etc. The rating is based on a scale from 0-100, with 50 as the league average. The resulting number is then used to predict the team's ultimate winning percentage, in this case .552. Extrapolated over a whole season, that puts the Raptors at a final record of approximately 45-37. That would be the team’s best record since that last division title and only two short of their most wins ever (accomplished twice, in 2006-07 and 2000-01).

With the two New York teams being way worse than anyone predicted and season-ending injuries to Derrick Rose and Al Horford derailing the chances of the Bulls and the Hawks, the East is wide open, just waiting for a team to emerge from the middle. Why not go for that now? The Raptors have a legitimate shot at their best record ever. On top of that, they’d likely face an unseasoned team like the Pistons or Bobcats in the first round, giving them a legitimate shot at making the second round (which is the farthest the franchise has ever gotten).

No one expects them to beat the Heat or Pacers, but isn’t a shot at the franchise’s best record and matching their deepest playoff run a good first step in Ujiri’s first year? We’ll see if the team has what it takes as they try to keep their impressive play going against the Pacers on Tuesday night.

(Canadian) author’s personal note: Do it for Canada!