Canadian basketball is on the rise.

The Toronto Raptors are having one of the best seasons in the history of their franchise and they have basketball-reference.com) shouldn’t require any further explanation as to why it’s bad. Meanwhile, the fact that Bennett has registered negative win shares is yet another sure sign of a regrettable start. Only eight players in the whole Association have played over 500 minutes and done that this season and Bennett has the second worst negative win share number out of the bunch. Tony Wroten has accumulated -0.7 win shares to Bennett’s -0.6, but in over twice the minutes. Thus, Bennett actually has the worst rate of win shares per 48 minutes among qualifying players in the whole Association at -0.055.

History Ain’t Kind

It’s Bennett’s incredibly low PER that has people holding him up against the number one picks of years gone by. Raw stats like points, rebounds, etc. only tell a very small portion of a story. PER and our own nERD are stats that are meant to measure a player’s overall impact on his team in one quantifiable measurement, while accounting for factors like usage and efficiency that the raw numbers often fail to reflect in a tangible way. Using these types of statistics facilitates comparisons of this nature.

Considering the league average PER is 15.0 and the average nERD is 0, it’s safe to say that Bennett has been below average this season (going into the All-Star break at 5.2 and -5.3 respectively). If you look at the data for number one picks over the last 15 seasons, Bennett’s PER is an eyesore. His nERD, on the other hand, is bad, albeit not on the same level of bad as the PER.

Bennett’s rookie PER is far and away the worst of the bunch. Just how different it is from known first overall busts Kwame Brown and Andrea Bargnani is actually pretty astonishing.

While PER has become something of an industry standard stat for measuring a player’s impact, it is not without its perceived shortcomings. It is known for being too heavily weighted on the offensive side of the ball and for not rewarding defensive play as heavily. Furthermore, it is said to give undue weight to a player's contribution in limited minutes.

These factors may contribute to Bennett’s astronomically low PER, given that his offensive struggles have been enormous and his minutes have been sporadic and admittedly low for a player that is facing the expectations of being a first overall selection. That’s not to say that his defense has been good, just not at the same level of terrible as his offense. As for his minutes, the incredibly short leash that Coach Mike Brown gives him is emerging as a possible factor in the stunting of his development (more on that in a minute).

Our nERD metric is a little bit more forgiving of Bennett’s season. That is likely due to the fact that it weighs in defensive rating and is kinder on players that play poorly in limited minutes or usage. That’s not to say it’s a better measurement tool than PER, just that the way it is constructed cuts Bennett a bit more slack.

A player like John Wall for instance, who played inefficient ball at a clip of 37.8 minutes per game in his rookie season with a high usage rate of 23.8, had an even lower nERD than Bennett has had this year, because his negative contributions happened far more frequently. For what it’s worth, Wall (our lowest first overall nERD of the last 15 years), is an All-Star this year. Oh, and LeBron James? People forget how inefficient he was in his rookie season, posting a nERD of -4.4. People seem to think he turned out fine as well.

Nowhere to Go But Up

Now, don’t go getting in your head that I think Bennett can someday reach the heights of LeBron or even Wall. What I’m saying is, almost every one of the players listed above has ended up with a career average PER above his rookie season’s mark (the only exception being Bennett’s teammate Irving, who is still only in his third year and should be granted more time before assessing that).

As for their career average nERD, the majority of the players have exceeded their rookie season’s mark, with the exceptions of Bogut and Oden (injury-plagued careers) and Bargnani (officially a bust). Even the infamous Kwame Brown managed to have a few seasons where he wasn’t a complete detriment to his team.

I know, I know, players getting better after their rookie season doesn’t exactly constitute as news. The point is, Anthony Bennett has played the equivalent of half an NBA season so far and the bust label is incredibly premature. Once the conditioning gets under control and he gets more reps under his belt, Bennett has enough natural talent in him to be a productive NBA player. If you split up his first 32 games and his last 9, there are signs of an arrow pointing up.

Predictably, twice the minutes has essentially meant more than double the production in areas like points and rebounds. The interesting development over the last nine games, however, is the noticeably improved shooting percentages and improved turnover rate. To make the comparison in quality of play for these two distinct periods, just look at the difference in per-36 numbers.

These two stat lines tell two completely different stories. That second player certainly wouldn’t have the word “bust” attached to his name in his rookie season. Just this past Tuesday, Bennett had his best game as a pro, posting 19 points and 10 rebounds, while shooting 6 of 9 from the field and 3 of 3 from downtown.

Although he has been noticeably better lately, he has still been relatively inconsistent. He preceded and followed up his big game with matching two-point outings. Not to beat a dead horse, but fluctuating minutes were likely to blame there. His last three games, he has played 6, 29, and 14 minutes. Very few players can put up consistent numbers or develop properly with that kind of uncertainty, so he should get a pass as he continues to figure this professional basketball thing out.

When the Rookie-Sophomore Game tips off on All-Star Friday Evening, Bennett will be nowhere near the court. If he is, by some chance, he certainly won’t be wearing a basketball uniform. His omission from the game is hard to argue with when you consider the year he has been having, but don’t be so quick to count him out for next year. The complete narrative has yet to be written on this young Canadian (reminder: he’s only 20 years old) and his play lately could be the first step in him earning a spot in the game as a sophomore next season.