Do the Cleveland Cavaliers have any chance whatsoever of climbing out of the 2-0 hole they’ve dug for themselves in their 2018 NBA Finals matchup with the Golden State Warriors?
Vegas would probably put better odds on pigs flying, hell freezing over, or whatever expression you prefer to say that we might as well just crown the Warriors champions right now.
After winning Game 2 on Sunday night, Golden State is now priced at -2500 to win the series, which implies a whopping 96.15% chance of a Warriors title.
You might as well forget the fact that the Cavaliers were down both 2-0 and 3-1 before storming back to win the title in 2016. Teams down 2-0 in a seven-game series have been able to come back to win only 6.5% of the time in NBA history (19 times in 292 occurrences) and 12.1% in NBA Finals history (4 times in 33 occurrences), according to whowins.com.
And this particular Cavs team simply doesn’t profile as one poised to make such a historic comeback, especially considering the strength of their opponent. The Warriors opened this series at -1060 to win it all, which was easily the most they’ve been favored in four years of this Finals matchup. Now, just two games later, -2500 is one of the more insurmountable-looking lines you will see.
Our metrics are a bit more modest and aren’t ready to dig a grave for the Cavaliers just yet, but we’re still favoring the Warriors pretty heavily in the series, with the most likely scenario being Golden State winning in a gentleman’s sweep (five games).
| Scenario | Golden State Warriors | Cleveland Cavaliers |
|---|---|---|
| Win in 4 | 18.51% | - |
| Win in 5 | 28.72% | - |
| Win in 6 | 16.58% | 7.54% |
| Win in 7 | 16.83% | 11.82% |
| Win series | 80.64% | 19.36% |
That near-20% chance for Cleveland makes their +1100 series price at this point look kind of tempting, but just know that you are betting on an extreme long shot.
It would be nice for Cleveland to even pull off a Game 3 victory and to make this a series, but this Warriors team might be too much for LeBron James and his diminutive supporting cast to overcome. The Cavaliers have actually opened as 5-point underdogs at home in Cleveland for Game 3, according to Westgate LV SuperBook, marking the first time they’ve been an underdog in their own gym this entire postseason.
Things would likely look a lot different had Cleveland taken Game 1, but now the Cavaliers have to win four of the next five from an all-time great Warriors team, and the chances of that happening for the second time in three years are pretty slim any way you slice it.