The Oklahoma City Thunder had their title hopes dashed last season when royally piss off players on the opposing team with his rough and tumble approach, but he might not be able to draw the sage and savvy Spurs into losing their cool quite so easily.

Where Adams will have to make his impact will be on the glass and in protecting the rim. He played a career high 40 minutes in Game 7 against the Clippers, putting up an impressive 10 points and 11 rebounds, while pacing the Thunder with a raw plus-minus of +17. He’s a bit unseasoned, but there might be no better stage for his coming out party than the Western Conference Finals. Collison will likely start, but Adams could have the opportunity to extrapolate on the potential we’ve seen in his 8.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks per 36 minutes played this season.

A Combination of Both

Nick Collison and Steven Adams represent good options to eat up the minutes left on the table by Ibaka, but both players will need to stay out of foul trouble to be effective. Collison averaged 5.0 fouls per-36 this season, while Adams registered an unsightly 6.1. Thankfully for both of them, Kendrick Perkins should take the pressure off when it comes to guarding Tim Duncan.

According to SportVU’s player tracking data, Perk held Duncan to 5 of 18 shooting (27.8%) in the 19 minutes they matched up directly in the season series, which the Thunder swept 4-0. Ibaka only played half the amount of time on Duncan this season and might not have drawn him very often on defensive assignments anyway to avoid foul trouble.

In the meantime, Collison and Adams haven’t exactly been defensive slouches themselves in this year’s playoffs. Of all players that have faced at least 3.5 shots per game at the rim during this postseason, Collison has allowed the lowest field goal percentage at 37.8% (1.4 made on 3.8 attempts per contest), while Adams is fourth with 40.4% (1.6 made on 3.9 attempts).

We’ll have to see if they can stay successful filling in for Ibaka, likely facing many more attempts in increased minutes against a team that has two of the league’s most dangerous drivers in the game in Tony Parker (league-leading 12.3 drives per game in the playoffs) and Manu Ginobili (7.8 drives per game this postseason). Of course, if replacing Ibaka directly with another big doesn’t end up being the way to go, this might be the Thunder’s chance to go small.

Reggie Jackson

Many NBA pundits have been clamoring for Thunder Coach Scott Brooks to go small for a long time, with a possible solution being to bring in Reggie Jackson to take some of the ball-handling burden off of Russell Westbrook’s shoulders. With Ibaka going down, the way to replace his minutes might be in shifting Durant to the power forward position to couple with any of Perk, Collison, or Adams and having Reggie come in to fill the void left by Ibaka.

Against the Spurs this year, in particular, Jackson averaged 21.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 1.3 steals, while shooting 67.9% from the floor, 72.7% from deep, and 83.3% from the line. His scoring average against the Spurs was his highest against any team this season. One would suspect that it came as a result of Westbrook missing almost half the year, but he was there for three of the four games against the Spurs, meaning Jackson only drew one start in those contests.

In 125 minutes of action against the Spurs this season, the Thunder had a net rating of 16.5 with Jackson on the floor and -4.5 with him off it. The two top lineups for the Thunder that had at least 10 minutes of floor time against San Antonio this year (based on net rating) both contained Reggie Jackson. In fact, the Thunder’s best lineup this entire season with a net rating of 46.7, was the regular starters (Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, Perkins, and Thabo Sefolosha) with Jackson in place of Perk. Ibaka is obviously a big missing piece, but the excuse to play Jackson more could counteract it. It’s worth a try, in the very least.

Verdict

Ibaka’s absence for the remainder of these playoffs is certainly a bummer, as we NBA fans will be robbed of a full-strength rematch of the compelling Western Conference Finals from 2012 and possibly a second iteration of our generation’s Bird vs. Magic in Durant vs. LeBron James in the NBA Finals.

One stat being thrown around quite a bit in the wake of the Ibaka injury is the fact that the Thunder have a defensive rating of 93.0 (points per 100 possessions) while Ibaka is on the floor against the Spurs this season, compared to 120.8 when he’s off.

Lost in this is the fact that the offensive rating is a difference of 103.8 (points per 100 possessions) when he’s on and a ridiculous 133.7 when he’s off. The resulting difference in net rating is actually 2.1 points per 100 possessions better when he’s off the floor. Besides, It’s a small sample size, so don’t think that Ibaka’s absence has automatically punched OKC’s ticket home based on one flashy statistic.

It’s important to remember, after all, that the fat lady has yet to sing and that this Thunder team is young, deep, and full of intriguing options. There likely won’t be any one answer to replacing the production of Serge Ibaka, but the Thunder might have the pieces to make a run at doing so, between Collison’s intangibles, Adams’ upside, both of their ability to protect the rim, and the successful small-ball lineups featuring Jackson that just might see more floor time now due to necessity.

Now, let’s stop speculating and just toss the ball up and see where it lands. Through it all, our algorithms are projecting the odds of the Spurs winning this series at 55.31%, even with the injury. Considering the Spurs have an edge on home-court advantage alone, that margin is slim enough to imagine that the Thunder could possibly overcome their newest set of adverse circumstances.