Run it back.

One year after we were treated to one of the best NBA Finals ever, we’re in for a second serving.

Last spring, the NBA’s two best teams in the Miami Heat and the San Antonio Spurs met in a best-of-seven slugfest that went down to the final moments of the seventh and final game. The Spurs had the champagne on ice near the end of Game 6, only to have NBA.com.

I discussed a few weeks ago how Green was becoming his generation’s "Big Shot" Robert Horry, and the Spurs will be looking for him to do just that in these NBA Finals. Horry’s sharpshooting was a big factor in the last two titles for the Spurs and Green’s could be a big factor in them getting this one.

The Keys to a Heat Three-Peat

Key Question: Who is this year’s Mike Miller?

Remember how Danny Green had the second-best three-point shooting percentage ever for a player in a seven-game series? Yeah, well, number one was Mike Miller from that same matchup (61.1%). He only took 22 shots in the series, but 18 of them were three-pointers, and he connected on 11 of them, resulting in an effective field goal percentage of 84.1% (!) for the series.

Even more interesting? In his 152 minutes of floor time, the Heat had a net rating of 17.3. When he was off the floor, they were at -10.8. It’s no secret that the Spurs pack the paint to keep LeBron and Wade out, but having a deadeye shooter for them to kick to in the corner has negated that strategy in the past.

In 2012, it was Shane Battier who got hot and helped the Big Three over the hump. In 2013, it was a combination of Mike Miller and Battier getting hot and bringing it home. With Miller gone and Battier averaging a playoff career low 14.1 minutes per game (with three DNPs on his game log this postseason to boot), who is going to step up and catch the ball when the star options of LeBron, Wade, Bosh, and Allen are covered or cold?

Norris Cole has shot 42.4% from deep this postseason (up from a 34.5% regular season mark), and seems like he could start being that option. Rashard Lewis has been effective in spurts, as has James Jones. There might not be any one answer to this question, but there was definitely a player outside the Big Three who was huge in the two previous titles and it’ll be interesting to see if it takes that to win again this time around.

Key Stat: The Miami Heat have a net rating of 62.0 and an effective field goal percentage of 74.1% in clutch time this postseason.

Despite what you may have heard, LeBron James is one of the most clutch performers the league has to offer. It certainly doesn’t hurt that he’s got other notably clutch performers Bosh and Allen playing at his side in crunch time, either.

This postseason, LeBron and Wade are a combined 10 of 15 from the field and 3 of 6 from deep in the final five minutes of close games. The 62.0 net rating and 74.1% effective field goal percentage by the Heat in the clutch both set the pace among playoff teams and outdo the 23.5 and 46.9% by the Spurs. Those numbers, of course, are nothing to balk at, but the Heat have been practically unstoppable when the game’s been on the line. Seriously, they've outscored opponents by a rate of 62 points per 100 possessions in the last five minutes of close games this postseason (5-point differential or less). 62!

With these two teams being so evenly matched, this series could very well come down to who performs better in crunch time. For now, that edge seems to favor the Heat.

Key Lineup: Mario Chalmers, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Rashard Lewis, Chris Bosh

There have been three different starting lineups for the Heat this postseason, featuring three different starting power forwards to go with James, Wade, Bosh, and Mario Chalmers. Udonis Haslem has started six of the games (and got a DNP in three others) and his version of the lineup has had a net rating of -35.4 in 75 minutes of action. Not great.

Shane Battier, just like Haslem, has drawn six starts and three DNPs, and his version of the lineup has posted a net rating of -1.3 in 83 minutes. Better, of course, but still not ideal as a first line for a championship contender that has gone 12-3 so far this postseason.

For the last three starts, the Heat have dusted off Rashard Lewis, and now Coach Erik Spoelstra has found a lineup that is cooking. That iteration has a net rating of 31.3 in 59 minutes of floor time, as a result of an offensive rating of 117.3 and a defensive rating of 86.0 (both the tops of all three lineups). In terms of raw plus-minus, the Lewis lineup has been a +34, compared to -49 for the Haslem version and +1 for the Battier version.

Despite having two DNPs to his name as well this postseason, Lewis has responded well to his new role. He scored zero points in his first start, but was a +21 in raw plus-minus. Over the next two starts, he averaged 15.5 points per game, shot 52.4% from the field, and hit 9 of 16 attempts from long range.

Spoelstra could very well switch it up again this round, perhaps even opting for Chris “Birdman” Andersen (net rating of 26.8) if he gets healthy. Either way, Lewis leads the Heat with a 30.5 net rating during these playoffs, he spreads the floor more than Haslem (dragging one of the San Antonio bigs out of the paint), and the Heat have simply been better with him than Battier. The way Spo opts to use his power forward position could be a game changer in this series.

Key X-Factor: Mario Chalmers

Although Norris Cole was outplaying Chalmers early on in the Eastern Conference Finals, ‘Rio held down the starting point guard position. He got the lion’s share of the point guard minutes over the series’ final two contests, and will likely be a major factor in this NBA Finals rematch with the Spurs.

In last year’s NBA Finals, Chalmers averaged 10.6 points and hit 40.6% from long range (including 10 of 16 from the corners). But what made him most valuable was his defense on Tony Parker. According to SportVU’s player tracking data, in the two tilts between these two teams in the regular season, Chalmers was Parker’s primary defender. In that matchup, Chalmers held Parker to 9.2 drives per 36 minutes (down from 12.5), and helped lower his mark of 0.62 points per drive to 0.44.

In last year’s NBA Finals, Chalmers’ on-court defensive rating of 97.6 was second on the Heat only to Birdman (96.9), and was far from the team-worst 116.6 mark that Miami had when he was off the floor. Considering the fact that Parker is the driving force in the Spurs’ potent offense, the Heat will need to fire up Super Mario to be successful in this series and to fluster the less-than-100% Parker.

Series Prediction

Here we are. Two powerhouse teams with large legacies to protect and add to face off for the second straight year on the NBA’s biggest stage. The Miami Heat have had the best offensive rating this postseason at 113.7, while the Spurs are second at 111.2. The best net rating belongs to San Antonio at 10.1 (due to their second-best defensive rating of 101.0), while the Heat are second at 8.3 (because of a higher 105.3 defensive rating). The Heat have paced all playoff teams with an effective field goal percentage of 56.1% and a true shooting percentage (weighted two, threes, and free throws) of 60.2%. Second place in those categories? The Spurs in both at 53.2% and 57.0% respectively.

Both sides have a fantastic coach (Pop, Spo), an all-time great (Duncan, James), a Hall-of-Fame sidekick (Parker, Wade), a powerful third banana (Ginobili, Bosh), a reason we should probably be saying Big Four (Leonard, Allen) and a full cast of interesting characters and x-factors (basically everyone else). Wade's season-long maintenance program seems to have paid off, and Pop spent a whole season masterfully managing the minutes of his aging vets for this very moment. Now, apart from a slight hiccup with Parker's ankle, we have both teams at full strength, ready to go.

By just about any account, these are the two best teams in the league, and they've both got the accolades to prove it. This thing could truly go either way, and you’d be hard pressed to find anyone shocked by the results. We can safely say it’ll be a battle, but there are a myriad of factors that will eventually determine the victor. Either way, it’s en vogue to pick a side and, since I’m at a loss, I’ll leave it to our computers to make the call.

Our algorithms pick: Spurs to win at 57.63%
Odds-on scenario: Spurs win in 7 at 18.91%

Sure, let’s go with that.

Game on.