With the 2014 NBA Draft less than three weeks away, it's time to start dissecting and analyzing the top prospects looking to make the jump to the big time.
Today we'll look at the point guards. As you're reading this article, you may be wondering where surefire top-10 pick Dante Exum is. Well, I wanted to avoid overlap in any of our positional profiles, and Exum currently looks like more of a shooting guard, although he certainly has the ability to develop into a point guard in the future.
Without further ado, here are the top point guards entering the NBA Draft.
1. Marcus Smart
School: Oklahoma State
Height: 6’3â€
Weight: 227 lbs.
Age: 20
If there was one player in college basketball this past season who embodied the term “Beast Modeâ€, it was Marcus Smart. Blessed with tremendous size and strength at the point guard position, Smart has the ability to bully opposing players at both ends of the floor. The sophomore did a lot of everything for a disappointing Oklahoma State team, and led all point guards in entered in the draft with a 27.2 Player Efficiency Rating. He also improved his Pure Point Rating significantly from -1.74 his freshman year to 1.45 this past season, showing he is learning the intricacies of running an offense.
The area where Smart will have the greatest immediate impact in the NBA, however, is on defense, as his 3.3 steals per 40 pace adjusted minutes was best among point guards in the draft. His physicality and intelligence on defense stood out on every play and he is capable of guarding any backcourt player as well as many smaller forwards. Smart was responsible for guarding potential number one pick Andrew Wiggins, and held him to just 39 percent from the field in three games, including just three points in a game at Kansas in January.
Where the 20 year old struggles is in his outside shooting and ability to play under control. Smart shot an abysmal 29.9 percent from three-point range last season, and he has some serious mechanical flaws in his form that need to be adjusted. He's a solid free-throw shooter at 72.8 percent, however he will need to be able to knock down outside shots or NBA defenses will just pack the paint on him. While he improved his efficiency as a point guard, he still often gets caught playing out of control and turns the ball over an excessive amount. If he can learn to harness his immense physical ability, Marcus Smart could be a superstar in the NBA.
Player Comparison:
Dwyane Wade – April 8, 2014
4. Elfrid Payton
School: Louisiana-Lafayette
Height: 6’4â€
Weight: 185 lbs.
Age: 20
While he may be an unknown commodity to the casual fan, Elfrid Payton has been on NBA GMs' radars since his performance for the U19 USA National team last summer. Payton was very effective on both ends of the court, and worked himself into the starting lineup alongside the likes of Aaron Gordon and Marcus Smart. The former Ragin’ Cajun’s value stems from his upside as a point guard and his current tenacity on defense. His cat-like quickness allows him to get to the rim with ease despite defenders giving his jump shot no respect. His length, quick hands, and quick feet make Payton a nightmare for opposing guards and he averaged 2.3 steals per 40 pace adjusted minutes while usually guarding the opponents most talented scorer.
Payton is easily the most raw of the point guards slated to go in the first round and there are several areas of his game that require improvement. Although he has good vision and passing ability, his Pure Point Rating of 0.04 shows he still has a long way to go before he can be considered an efficient point guard. His greatest weakness by far however is his long-range shooting. Payton was the worst three-point shooter out of this draft class’ point guards at a cringe-worthy 25.9 percent. His 59.0 percent mark from the free throw line doesn’t provide any optimism either. Unless he develops at least an average outside shot, it will be extremely difficult for Payton to succeed offensively.
Player Comparison:
Rajon Rondo – A long, wiry defensive-minded point guard without a jump shot is the consensus with Elfrid Payton, and Rondo had virtually the same scouting report coming out of Kentucky. Payton still has a long way to go to reach the Boston guard’s ability to dish, but this is a nice comparison for him to reach for.
Draft Pick Projection:
Oklahoma City Thunder – With two picks near the end of the first round, the Thunder can go in a number of different directions in this draft. With Derek Fisher and Thabo Sefolosha likely going to be elsewhere next season, the Thunder could use the depth, defense, and upside that Payton provides.
5. Deonte Burton
School: Nevada
Height: 6’1â€
Weight: 193 lbs.
Age: 22
The point guard class falls off a bit after the first four, however there are a number of things Deonte Burton does extremely well that could be valuable to an NBA franchise. Despite standing just 6’1â€, Burton has a tremendous 6’7†wingspan and can leap out of the building. This allowed him to throw down highlight dunks, come out of nowhere to send back shots, and finish strong through contact at the rim. The Nevada senior is a nightmare for opponents on the fast break as he can finish score by either going through you or over you. A capable shooter from the outside, there is no shortage of ways Burton can burn a defense.
Currently, Burton is simply a scoring point guard as he lacks many the ability to facilitate an offense efficiently. Part of the reason for this is that he played on a sub-.500 team in Nevada, and there weren’t any threats to score other than himself. He's also extremely inconsistent with his outside shot and often took ill-advised jumpers in college as a result of trying to do too much. Being one of the oldest players in the draft will also hurt his stock, as he will be 23 years old before the summer is over.
Player Comparison:
Will Bynum – Bynum has never been a great outside shooter, but he scores by getting to the rim and knocking down open mid-range shots. Burton has the potential to be a similarly valuable player off the bench and he could even be a better outside shooter with some work.
Draft Pick Projection:
Milwaukee Bucks - Milwaukee's starting lineup should look interesting after their top pick in this year's draft, and picking Burton in the second round will provide their bench with a much needed scoring option.