In daily fantasy basketball, finding players you want to roster is a lot easier than finding players to avoid.
You can find a ton of great information and research on guys you might want to include in your DFS NBA lineups, but what about guys you may want to lessen your exposure to, or even fade altogether?
Avoiding players whose matchups or situations aren't as great as they seem can often be just as important as finding the best targets. After all, it takes only one player to sink a lineup. Searching for the landmines could mean the difference between winning and losing your contests. Which players should we avoid tonight?
Bradley Beal, SG, Washington Wizards
FanDuel Price: $8,500
While Bradley Beal has led the league in minutes played this season (37.2 per game), with the Washington Wizards' season going nowhere, he has taken it easy over the last week.
In his last three games, Beal has averaged just 25.5 minutes per game while staying on the court for more than 23.5 minutes only once. During that time, his output has expectedly slowed to an average of just 19.0 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 4.0 assists for 31.6 FanDuel points per game. While that is decent production, it falls well short of being worth Beal’s $8,500 price tag on Tuesday.
In the season finale tonight, Beal is not likely to see a spike in minutes. Our models agree with the expected reduced playing time, too, projecting Beal for just 25.0 minutes against the Boston Celtics and pegging him to collect only 28.8 FanDuel points for a dismal 3.3 FanDuel points per $1,000 of salary.
C.J. McCollum, SG, Portland Trail Blazers
FanDuel Price: $8,000
Another player with a high price tag who isn't expected to see extensive run on Tuesday is C.J. McCollum.
Unlike the Wizards, the Portland Trail Blazers are playoff bound and are still fighting for positioning in the tightly packed Western Conference. For McCollum, though, his reduced workload comes from a prolonged absence due to a knee injury. After missing 10 games with a knee injury, the shooting guard returned on Sunday, playing 25 minutes. He showed a bit of rust, sinking a mere 3-of-13 shots for nine points. McCollum ended up with just 28.2 FanDuel points for 3.5 FanDuel points per $1,000 of salary.
In a soft matchup with the Los Angeles Lakers tonight, the Blazers can afford to continue to take it easy with McCollum as they are 9.5-point favorites. That leaves McCollum with an expected workload of about 25 minutes, making it hard for him to reach optimal value on a packed 11-game slate.
Paul Millsap, PF, Denver Nuggets
FanDuel Price: $6,400
The Denver Nuggets are expected to have a full roster available tonight against the Utah Jazz after sitting out Paul Millsap, Jamal Murray, and Nikola Jokic on Sunday. Even with Millsap expected to start, there continues to be a threat of a reduced workload as the Nuggets are all but locked into the 2 seed in the West.
Even if Millsap is at full strength, he has struggled against the Utah frontcourt in three previous meetings this season, averaging just 20.7 FanDuel points per game against the Jazz. The Nuggets' forward didn't do much on the glass, averaging only 5.0 boards per game. Making matters worse, Utah appears to finally be healthy upfront with Jae Crowder and Derrick Favors both expected to play tonight.
Power forwards posting subpar nights against the Jazz isn't just a Milsap problem, either. Utah ranks fourth in the league by holding the position to just 0.92 FanDuel points per minute this season.