With nERD, which is comparable to win shares. That can show us the production of each player in relation to the overall team performance and give us a percentage. Multiplying that percentage by their total salary number last year - $80,698,486 – we can find out what a player’s salary “should have been†by their production.
Think of it this way: If the Heat ownership paid the players after the season and divided up the $80 million check by what the numbers say about each player's production, here's how the checks would read.
By Win Shares
| Player | '13-'14 Salary | '13-'14 WS | Salary By Production | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Bosh | $19,067,500 | 8.0 | $11,889,279 | - $7,178,220 |
| LeBron James | $19,067,500 | 15.9 | $23,629,943 | + $4,562,443 |
| Dwyane Wade | $18,536,000 | 5.5 | $8,173,880 | - $10,362,120 |
| Udonis Haslem | $4,340,000 | 1.1 | $1,634,776 | - $2,705,224 |
| Mario Chalmers | $4,000,000 | 4.8 | $7,133,568 | + $3,133,568 |
| Shane Battier | $3,270,000 | 2.4 | $3,566,784 | + $296,784 |
| Ray Allen | $3,229,050 | 4.1 | $6,093,256 | + $2,864,206 |
| Toney Douglas | $1,600,000 | 0.7 | $1,040,312 | - $559,688 |
| James Jones | $1,500,000 | 0.7 | $1,040,312 | - $459,688 |
| Chris Andersen | $1,399,507 | 6.0 | $8,916,960 | + $7,517,453 |
| Rashard Lewis | $1,399,507 | 1.7 | $2,526,472 | + $1,126,965 |
| Norris Cole | $1,191,240 | 1.2 | $1,783,392 | + $592,152 |
| Michael Beasley | $1,027,424 | 1.6 | $2,377,856 | + $1,350,432 |
| Greg Oden | $884,293 | 0.5 | $743,080 | - $141,213 |
| Justin Hamilton | $98,036 | 0.1 | $148,616 | + $50,580 |
| DeAndre Liggins | $88,429 | 0.0 | $0 | - $88,429 |
LeBron and Birdman were the only two players who significantly outperformed their contracts. Chalmers and Ray Allen also had good seasons, although the former was vilified after a disappointing playoff run.
The biggest difference is obviously Wade - he made $18,536,000 this season, but only performed like an $8,173,880 player. Teams can consistently find cheap veterans to produce on lower $1 million contracts, like Lewis and Andersen. But when your star players who are getting paid like star players no longer produce like star players, then you're in trouble.
By nERD
The numbers here are vastly more drastic. Our metric is not so kind to certain players, especially Norris Cole who posted a -5.7 nERD on the year. The number here can be positive or negative, and measures approximately how many wins (plus or minus) a team would have with that player as a starter. So with Cole starting for the Heat, they would be approximated to lose 5.7 games as a result.
Obviously no statistic is perfect, and perhaps Cole is more valuable coming off the bench than he would be as a starter. And the numbers below will be a little shocking because of the negatives. Since the "production salaries" will be negative as a result of their nERD, the difference will be bigger. Win shares measure just wins - even a bad player will probably add something to a win here or there. But nERD attempts to measure wins and losses, and shows how much a detriment an unproductive player making a large contract is.
Also, our metric shows the difference between LeBron's individual production in comparison to the individual production of his surrounding players. There a huge difference between his 20.4 nERD and the second-highest on the team, which is Andersen's 6.7 mark.
| Player | '13-'14 Salary | '13-'14 nERD | Salary By Production | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Bosh | $19,067,500 | 6.2 | $17,076,130 | - $1,991,370 |
| LeBron James | $19,067,500 | 20.4 | $56,185,977 | + $37,118,477 |
| Dwyane Wade | $18,536,000 | 3.6 | $9,915,172 | - $8,620,828 |
| Udonis Haslem | $4,340,000 | -0.4 | - $1,101,686 | - $5,441,686 |
| Mario Chalmers | $4,000,000 | 0.5 | $1,377,107 | - $2,622,893 |
| Shane Battier | $3,270,000 | -1.1 | - $3,029,636 | - $6,299,636 |
| Ray Allen | $3,229,050 | 0.1 | $275,421 | - $2,953,629 |
| Toney Douglas | $1,600,000 | -1.1 | - $3,029,636 | - $4,629,636 |
| James Jones | $1,500,000 | 0.7 | $1,927,950 | + $427,950 |
| Chris Andersen | $1,399,507 | 6.7 | $18,453,237 | + $17,053,730 |
| Rashard Lewis | $1,399,507 | -0.6 | - $1,652,529 | - $3,052,036 |
| Norris Cole | $1,191,240 | -5.7 | - $15,699,023 | - $16,890,263 |
| Michael Beasley | $1,027,424 | -0.2 | - $550,843 | - $1,578,267 |
| Greg Oden | $884,293 | 0.2 | $550,843 | - $333,450 |
| Justin Hamilton | $98,036 | 0.0 | $0 | - $98,036 |
| DeAndre Liggins | $88,429 | 0.0 | $0 | - $88,429 |
Wow. LeBron, by our numbers, would get a cut of $56,185,977. That's ridiculous. And Cole would have to pay ownership $16,890,263 because of his performance.
Conclusion
LeBron is absolutely worth a max contract, although you didn't need this exercise to know that. More importantly, Wade is worth nowhere near the max, and him taking a significant pay cut is absolutely critical for the Heat this offseason. He already opted out of his contract, but we'll see just how much less he's willing to accept.
LeBron is worth it. Pay the man his money and cut everywhere else. It's not like most of the Heat players really matched their worth anyway.