The courtship of blow in people's ears and stir up drama.
On the TV show How I Met Your Mother, Barney created a hot-to-crazy scale for his girlfriends. In a nutshell, a line goes up through the graph and the goal is to stay above it. The crazier the girl is, the hotter she has to be to make up for it.
This is kind of how we view Lance Stephenson in the NBA. We could probably create a hypothetical 3D one where we have our x-axis as crazy, y-axis as talent, and the z-axis as contract. OK, I've talked myself into it. Let’s break them down.
The X Axis: Crazy
Here’s a thing we know about Lance: he isn’t afraid of basketball-reference.com, only behind nERD, gives him a 3.4 on the year, which means a team with Lance plus four league-average players would be about three to four games over .500. ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus has him at 5.71 wins above replacement (WAR), which was good for 11th among all shooting guards on the year.
Whatever statistic you want to look at, Stephenson is still a net positive. He made strides in his offensive game this past season, and was a big part of one of the best defenses we’ve ever seen historically in Indiana. He will fit very nicely into Charlotte head coach Steve Clifford’s defensive system, while also providing a nice third option on offense beside Walker and Jefferson.
The Z Axis: Contract
Signing Stephenson to a three-year, $27 million contract is a huge win for the Hornets. It's also a little odd, as he turned down a five-year, $44 million contract offer from the Pacers. So he got a per-year upgrade by signing with Charlotte, but it was only an additional $200,000 a year. And he got fewer guaranteed years.
The three-year contract also includes a team option on the final year, which is perfect for the Hornets. If we’re plotting our graph, the contract absolutely makes Stephenson worth it. At just two guaranteed years, it's a very low risk signing. If the crazy ends up outweighing the talent, the Hornets can move on in two years. They don’t have to put all their chips in the Lance basket.
The Verdict
Out of all the questionable contracts this offseason, this one is right on the money. Based on "salary by production," Stephenson performed like a $9 million per year player last year with the Pacers. The Hornets got a steal last night, and they now firmly put themselves in a position to not only get to the playoffs again next year, but possibly even advance to the second round.