NBA

Updated NBA Championship Odds: Fear the Deer

Elisha Twerski  —  @ElishaTwerski Nov 11th, 2019
The Bucks are making their opponents see deer in the headlights and their title odds are moving up. What other teams saw movement this week?

In this edition of the NBA Odds Update, we’ll look at what teams saw their odds move the most since our last update.

Teams that had strong weeks and are starting to look like cohesive units will likely see the most upward movement, while those who had it rough could see their odds spiraling.

If you want to see our odds for every team, be sure to check out our power rankings.

Milwaukee Bucks

FanDuel Title Odds: +550
numberFire Champs Probability: 14.2%

The biggest odds movement of the week belonged to the Milwaukee Bucks, who saw their title probability increase by 4.1 percent.

Led by Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee went 3-1 on a tough four-game West Coast road trip. Giannis averaged an astonishing 34.3, 15 rebounds, and 5.5 assists on 58 percent shooting and 42.1 percent from three. Milwaukee's only loss came to the league’s top defensive team – the Utah Jazz – on a last-second buzzer-beater in a game in which the Bucks were down 20 at the half.

Through 10 games, the Bucks are ninth in defensive rating, fourth in offensive rating, and second in net rating. The Deer are 7-3 despite having played the toughest schedule in the league, according to ESPN’s RPI Index.

Philadelphia 76ers

FanDuel Title Odds: +600
numberFire Champs Probability: 8.4%

Losing three out of four is bound to hurt the odds of any title contender, and the Philadelphia 76ers are no different.

The 76ers saw their title odds drop by 2.3 percent this week, according to our algorithms.

This past week, Philly lost to the Suns, Jazz, and Nuggets before coming back home and eking out a win against the Hornets. Philadelphia’s nERD score -- which is our efficiency metric based on in-game data – has dropped by 6.1 points since the start of the season. It doesn’t help that Ben Simmons is averaging career-lows in points, rebounds, and assists (in seven games).

Boston Celtics

FanDuel Title Odds: +2500
numberFire Champs Probability: 5.9%

The second-biggest increase in title odds belonged to the Boston Celtics, who saw their probabilities of winning a title rise from 4.8 percent last week to 5.9 percent this week.

Though Boston has only played eight games, they are fifth in the league in offensive and defensive efficiency, resulting in a league-best net rating of 9.3. The Celtics have in impressive resume, with wins against the Raptors, Bucks, and Spurs already in 2019.

Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum have combined to average 45.8 points and 12.7 rebounds so far this season. Both Walker and Tatum are shooting above 41 percent from downtown.

The first-seed Celtics look like true title contenders thus far, though the season is still young.