NBA Odds Update: The King Leads the Way
In this edition of the NBA Odds Update, we’ll look at which teams saw their odds move the most since our last update.
Teams that had strong weeks and are starting to look like cohesive units will likely see the most upward movement, while those who had it rough could see their odds spiraling.
If you want to see our odds for every team, be sure to check out our power rankings.
Los Angeles Lakers
FanDuel Title Odds: +440
numberFire Champs Probability: 27.9%
Surprise, surprise. The team with the league's best record saw the biggest title odds increase this week.
Sitting at 11-2, the Los Angeles Lakers have cruised through the first few weeks of the season. Led by Anthony Davis and LeBron James, the Lakers possess the league's best defensive rating and ninth-best offensive rating. The result? A league-best net rating of 9.3.
Even more so than in the past, LeBron has taken upon himself the role of facilitator, averaging 11.2 assists through 13 games -- which would top his previous career-best by 2.1. Whether it's because of his pass-first mentality, or because he's averaging a career-low in minutes per game, LeBron is also scoring at the lowest clip (25.0 points per game) since his rookie season.
Meanwhile, Anthony Davis leads the league in blocks and is seventh in defensive win shares (minimum seven games).
After going 4-0 this past week, the Lakers increased their championship odds by 4.4 percent to 27.9.
San Antonio Spurs
FanDuel Title Odds: +6500
numberFire Champs Probability: 0.2%
While the actual drop in percentage is small, the San Antonio Spurs saw their odds decrease by 80 percent -- from 1.0% to 0.2%.
The Spurs started the season 3-0 and have lost 8 of 10 since, including five in a row. Over their last seven games, San Antonio has lost to the Hawks, Grizzlies, Timberwolves, and Magic, among others.
San Antonio does not have a single player averaging 20 points or 5 assists per game. The Spurs also don't have a player inside the top 125 in defensive win shares. Without stars on either side of the ball, the Spurs will be hard-pressed to make the playoffs, let alone win a title.
Philadelphia 76ers
FanDuel Title Odds: +600
numberFire Champs Probability: 5.0%
Remember when the Philadelphia 76ers started the season 5-0? Well, they've lost five of their last eight, with two of their three wins coming against the lowly Cleveland Cavaliers.
That rough patch has resulted in Philly's title odds dropping from 8.4% last week to 5.0% this week.
Fresh off a five-year, $170 million maximum extension, Ben Simmons is averaging career-lows in points (13.7), rebounds (6.0), and assists (7.1). After finishing inside the top 10 in defensive win shares as a rookie, Simmons struggled in that category last season and is 75th in the league thus far in 2019.
A lack of spacing is likely a contributor, but the 76ers currently have the 13th-worst offensive efficiency rating in the league. With a net rating that is outside the top four in their own conference, Philadelphia will need to be better offensively and defensively to be considered true title contenders.
Utah Jazz
FanDuel Title Odds: +1300
numberFire Champs Probability: 9.2%
Owners of the league's second-best defensive rating, the Utah Jazz saw their title odds jump by 2.2 percent this week.
Utah's resume is impressive. Despite having faced the league's seventh-toughest schedule, the Jazz are 8-4 and have the fourth-best record in a tough Western Conference. Utah already has tough wins against the Suns, Clippers, 76ers, and Bucks this season -- and we're still in the middle of November.
Along with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kawhi Leonard, and James Harden, Donovan Mitchell is one of only four players averaging more than 25 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, and 1.4 steals per game.
At +1300, the Jazz are a great value if you're looking for an under-the-radar title bet.
