Basketball is the most consistent sport for daily fantasy purposes.
A top slugger in baseball will have his fair share of 0-for-4 days, and an elite fantasy football player is at risk of having games where his team's offense as a whole is shut down. A high-priced NBA stud is generally going to get his, though. With so many possessions in a game providing opportunities to produce, top fantasy basketball options will be posting high scores just about every night.
While this consistency puts us in a good position to identify top plays, it also means you can't afford to miss when you're paying up for someone. Even with strong value plays in your lineup, paying up and getting a dud is likely going to leave your lineup drawing pretty close to dead.
Let's get right into it and look at which top players should be the focal points of your lineups tonight.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, SF, Milwaukee Bucks ($11,100)
The Los Angeles Lakers are usually a matchup you'd look to fade in daily fantasy, especially on a big slate, but they don't have the same effect on Giannis Antetokounmpo.
The Greek Freak dropped 59.7 FanDuel points in his first meeting with the Lakers this season, and while a one-game sample size obviously isn't proof of much, there's a larger trend that keeps him in play, as well.
As I looked at last week, the increased minutes Giannis plays in close games more than makes up for the dip in efficiency he sees against tough opponents. The Milwaukee Bucks are just 1.0-point underdogs in this one, so if Giannis does see his efficiency take a hit against the Lakers, a bump in minutes from what should be a competitive game keeps him an elite fantasy play anyway.
Bradley Beal, SG, Washington Wizards ($10,100)
Bradley Beal is one of the NBA's most scoring-reliant fantasy producers. He is tied for the second-most games with at least 40 real-world points (10) but checks in at 12th in FanDuel points per game (46.2).
This volatile, offense-heavy production positions him very nicely tonight against the Atlanta Hawks in a game that should feature scoring aplenty.
The Hawks sit 28th in the NBA in defensive rating this season, which they've combined with the 6th-fastest pace. This puts them right in line with the Washington Wizards (30th in defensive rating, 5th in pace), and these two should treat us to a shootout.
That was certainly the case the first time they met this year, when Beal dropped 40 points (52.6 FanDuel points) in a contest the Hawks won 152-133 in regulation.
John Collins, PF, Atlanta Hawks ($8,400)
In a game that's likely to be high scoring, it probably doesn't come as a surprise that you can find fantasy goodness on both sides. Sure, Trae Young ($9,900) is firmly play for the Hawks, but with Beal being the preferred play at that lofty price point, John Collins may be the best way to get high-upside exposure to Atlanta.
To start with, Collins' price-tag does not at all capture how he's been producing. He fizzled with 18.1 FanDuel points in his last outing, but before that, he dropped at least 46.0 in four of five, and he's still averaging 43.2 per game (5.1 per $1,000 of salary tonight) across his last 10.
The Wiz aren't just a great matchup for scoring, either, as they combine their top-five pace with the 30th-ranked total rebound rate. Already under-priced and playing in a matchup that gives him the potential for huge boosts to both his scoring and rebounding upside, Collins is easy to like in this spot.
Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.