The 2019-20 NBA season will resume with seeding games scheduled for July 30 in Orlando, Florida. That means the NBA will be passing out regular season awards in the not-so-distant future, and one of the closest races this year is undoubtedly the Most Improved Player Award.
FanDuel Sportsbook has set odds for the 2019-20 Most Improved Player, and there are some juicy lines for NBA bettors. While Miami's Bam Adebayo is the favorite to win (-140), Dallas' Luka Doncic (+500), Boston's Jayson Tatum (+1000), and Charlotte's Devonte' Graham (+1100) are all good bets as well.
However, my favorite bet to win the award is the New Orleans Pelicans' Brandon Ingram, who has +260 odds.
Here's a look at why Ingram is an excellent bet to win the award.
The Competition
Despite having 3/1 odds on March 5, a few days before the league suspended play, Adebayo finds himself as the favorite to win the award after an ESPN forecast panel selected him to win.
Adebayo has put up stellar numbers in his third season with the Heat.
| Year | Points per Game | Rebounds per Game | Assists per Game | Steals + Blocks | Field Goal Percentage | Free Throw Percentage | True Shooting Percentage | Win Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | 8.9 | 7.3 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 57.6% | 73.5% | 62.3% | 6.8 |
| 2019-20 | 16.0 | 10.5 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 56.7% | 69.0% | 60.6% | 8.1 |
Based on his statistical improvement, Bam is not a bad bet by any means. That said, his efficiency has actually dropped a bit from where it was last year.
Luka Doncic (+500) went from being a star as a rookie in 2018-19 to a superstar in 2019-20. He was also in the running for Most Valuable Player throughout much of the season and now has the fourth-best odds.
Since the Most Improved Player award's inception in 1985-86, no player has ever won Rookie of the Year and followed it up with either the Most Improved or Most Valuable Player Award. I wouldn't bet on Doncic bucking that trend.
The Case for Ingram to Win Most Improved Player
After all the drama and trade rumors he endured in his final season with the Los Angeles Lakers, the trade to New Orleans was a blessing in disguise for Ingram.
Ingram, the second overall pick in 2016 with comparisons to Kevin Durant based on his skills and lanky frame, didn’t live up to the hype with the Lakers. In his final season there, he averaged 18.3 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 3.0 assists in just 52 games.
Ingram showed significant inconsistencies at the free-throw line and from beyond the arc with the Lakers. In his three years with the team, he shot under 33.0 percent from three and less than 70.0 percent from the charity stripe.
Los Angeles didn't sniff the playoffs in any of Ingram's three seasons, going 98-148 during that stretch.
Then came his first season with New Orleans.
The Pelicans' plan appeared to be to let Lonzo Ball and Ingram develop chemistry with the rest of the team while Zion Williamson recovered from injury, and they executed it to perfection.
Ingram played 39 games without Williamson and became the primary scorer and closer for New Orleans. He averaged 25.6 points during those 39 contests, which is pretty damn impressive for a 22-year-old. The scoring came along with averages of 6.7 rebounds and 4.4 assists. Ingram has seen his player efficiency rating jump from 13.48 in his final season in LA to 19.25 with New Orleans.
The most important stride Ingram has made is [with] his shooting efficiency. His true shooting percentage (59.0 percent), three-point percentage (38.7 percent), and free throw percentage (85.8 percent) are all career-highs. And that's despite shooting at a higher volume in each of those categories.
Ingram's free-throw percentage jumped 18.3-percent from last season, which is one of the most substantial increases from one season to the next in NBA history, per Jim Eichenhofer.
As you can see in the video from Bleacher Report, the talk surrounding Ingram's stellar season continued to build towards the end of 2019 when he was top-10 in scoring.
As recently as March 2, Ingram was still the favorite to take home the Most Improved Player award. However, the hype has died down since Williamson returned from injury, leading the way for Adebayo to become the betting favorite.
In 17 games with Williamson in the lineup, Ingram averaged 21.1 points, 5.2 rebounds, 4.2 assists, and 1.2 steals on 43.8 percent shooting, 36.0 percent from three, and 85.5 percent from the free-throw line.
Ingram's season would look all that more impressive statistically if he didn't have to cede a chunk of his usage to the number-one overall pick, though his numbers are pretty impressive as is.
As you can see, Ingram's game has grown significantly since his final season with the Lakers.
| Year | Points per Game | Rebounds per Game | Assists per Game | 3PT Att. per Game | 3PT Percentage | Free Throw Percentage | True Shooting Percentage | Usage | Win Shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | 18.3 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 33.0% | 67.5% | 55.5% | 23.2% | 2.0 |
| 2019-20 | 24.3 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 38.7% | 85.8% | 59.0% | 28.3% | 4.9 |
As of now, Ingram ranks 13th in scoring and 23rd in offensive efficiency (22.9), per NBA.com.
Like Adebayo, the statistical improvement is notable across the board. However, unlike Adebayo, Ingram's efficiency is night and day from where it was last season. He's hitting shots at much higher rates despite seeing a sizable increase in usage. That alone should make him the favorite for the award and by far the best bet.
The last few games of the season could be significant for Ingram, especially if the Pelicans make the playoffs as the eighth seed in the Western Conference. That would all but seal the award for him.