Fantasy basketball season is a mere two weeks away, and you probably just finished jiggering your rankings to get them just right. Your draft is in a few days, and you have the number-one overall pick lined up. fantasypros.com's consensus rankings of 18 experts has Durant slipping past all four of those guys to be the fifth pick, and that's probably a fair range for him.
Then again, if you absolutely want to draft him first, it's hard to fault you for it. KD is a special fantasy player. Nowhere else in the draft will you come close to finding 32.0 points, 2.4 threes, 7.4 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 1.3 steals, and 0.7 blocks per game, to combine with 50.3% shooting from the floor and 87.3% from the line in one package. Even with the 3.5 turnovers per game, Durant's the kind of guy worth waiting for. If you're in a head-to-head league, grabbing him at your first chance and building your team in a way that lessens the bleeding for the first one to two months of the season could certainly prove to be worth it in the end.
When to Draft Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka
Both nbawowy.com, there were only 39 minutes that Westbrook played without Durant last season, but his usage rate was at a ridiculous 44.9% during that time (compared to 33.6% in the 2,064 minutes the two played together). Sure, it's a small sample size, but the bump in usage for Westbrook is all but certain to happen, even if it's not exactly that high. More usage typically means more counting stats and better fantasy returns, so Westbrook quickly becomes one of the more interesting early picks for the added upside this news brings.
Durant hasn't missed many games in his career, so it's hard to exactly project Westbrook's role over an extended period of time without him. That said, it's almost certainly going to be the Thunder's first real chance to see what happens when you #LetWestbrookBeWestbrook. He was already a solid source of points, threes, rebounds (for a point guard), assists, steals, and free throw percentage. He leaves a little to be desired in terms of field goal percentage and turnovers, and doesn't exactly block a lot of shots, but his positive aspects should only become more positive as he gets all the minutes and possessions he can handle. Draft him somewhere in the four to nine range of the first round without hesitation.
As for Ibaka, basketballmonster.com.
The assist (5.0 per contest during that period) and steal (1.4) upside was nice, but he only ranged from average in points (14.8), threes (1.1), rebounds (3.7), and free throw percentage (81.8%) to pretty bad in blocks (0.0), field goal percentage (41.9%), and turnovers (2.5). If his price gets driven up prior to the late rounds with the Durant news, he's probably not worth it based on what we already saw him do in a bigger role last year. If people forget about him, however, he'll make for an interesting flier in the 100 to 150 range.
The biggest problem with Jackson is true of everyone on the list; none of them is a sure thing to start. Any of the six guys listed above could have either of those two jobs come opening night and coach Scott Brooks could definitely take a hot-hand approach if no one runs away with either position. Jackson might be the best player of the bunch, but he's a crucial part of the second unit and he might have to stay there to keep the bench contributing positively while the starting lineup is clearly depleted.
For argument's sake, let's take a look at everyone's per-36 numbers from last year (along with their per-36 fantasy rank) to see who could stand to benefit the most from earning a starting spot:
| Player (per-36) | Per-36 Rank | PTS | 3s | REB | AST | STL | BLK | FG% | FT% | TOV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Lamb | 107 | 15.6 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 43.2% | 79.7% | 1.4 |
| Reggie Jackson | 126 | 16.5 | 1.3 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 44.0% | 89.3% | 2.7 |
| Anthony Morrow | 147 | 16.0 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 45.7% | 82.8% | 1.3 |
| Andre Roberson | 247 | 6.8 | 0.2 | 8.5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 48.5% | 70.0% | 1.7 |
| Perry Jones | 306 | 10.2 | 1.0 | 5.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 45.9% | 66.7% | 1.0 |
| Lance Thomas | n/a | 5.1 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 22.2% | 50.0% | 1.7 |
No one on the list really inspires a boatload of confidence, nor does anyone stand out as a must-own player just yet. For now, the best move seems to be to stick everyone here on your watch list and keep a close eye on the situation to see if someone emerges. At best, you'll have someone who is a temporary option or a Durant handcuff until the MVP returns anyway, so don't burn a decent draft pick on anyone here outside of Jackson in the late rounds. If you absolutely want a dart to throw, I'd say Lamb emerges as a somewhat productive option, but don't quote me on it.
Get well soon, KD. Our fantasy squads need you.