In this edition of the 2020-21 NBA Championship Odds Update, we’ll look at which teams saw their numberFire title odds move the most since opening day.
Teams that had strong starts and are starting to look like cohesive units will likely see the most upward movement, while those that had it rough could see their odds spiraling.
If you want to see numberFire's odds for every team, be sure to check out our power rankings. FanDuel Sportsbook's most up-to-date championship odds can be found here. Now, here's a look at four of the teams who had the most movement in title odds over the last week.
Milwaukee Bucks
Current numberFire Champs Probability: 21.2
Previous numberFire Champs Probability: 18.0
FanDuel Sportsbook Title Odds: +600
Despite what can best be described as a rocky start, numberFire's models are quite bullish on the Milwaukee Bucks to start the season.
Milwaukee has suffered losses to the Boston Celtics, New York Knicks (by 20 points, mind you), and Miami Heat, though their three victories have come by an average of...wait for it...38.7 points. Yeah, you read that right. Due to that, the Bucks rank first in the league in both net and offensive rating, and they're also ninth defensively.
Over at NBA Finals odds, you can currently place a championship bet on the Bucks at 6/1. That implies odds of 14.3% -- quite the difference from our model's 21.2%. There's potential value to be had here.
Philadelphia 76ers
Current numberFire Champs Probability: 5.9%
Previous numberFire Champs Probability: 5.0%
FanDuel Sportsbook Title Odds: +1800
The start of the season for the Philadelphia 76ers has led to an 18% increase in their title odds, per our models, from 5.0% to 5.9%.
Philly's 5-1 record is currently the best in the league, and they rank third and first in net and defensive rating, respectively. In addition to the bump in title odds, numberFire's algorithm gives the Sixers a 93.8% chance of making it to the postseason.
Over at oddsFire, we see that you can get a 76ers championship bet in for as low as 25/1 -- that carries implied odds of 3.9%. Given that our models have them at 5.9%, there's room for value with a wager on Philadelphia.
Miami Heat
Current numberFire Champs Probability: 2.2%
Previous numberFire Champs Probability: 2.6%
FanDuel Sportsbook Title Odds: +1800
While our model's title odds for the Miami Heat dropped from just 2.6% to 2.2%, that is a 15.4% decrease. It also doesn't help that there was already a disconnect between numberFire's probabilities and Miami's betting odds.
The lowest number you can get on the Heat is 18/1, which implies 5.3% odds of winning the Finals -- our models give last year's Eastern Conference champs just 2.2%.
Though one of Miami's two wins did come against Milwaukee, they also lost to the Bucks by 47 the night before. Miami's offensive rating of 101.8 is tied for second-worst in the league, and their -7.0 net rating is good for fifth-worst. While the sample size is still too small to make any real conclusions, betting on Miami is not a suggested path to go down right now.
Los Angeles Clippers
Current numberFire Champs Probability: 7.4%
Previous numberFire Champs Probability: 6.8%
FanDuel Sportsbook Title Odds: +700
Another season has started, and the Los Angeles Clippers seem to be suffering from the same inconsistencies.
Like last season, the 2020-21 Clips have had moments where they look like they should be title favorites -- notably, they beat the reigning champs on opening night and followed it up with a convincing victory over the Denver Nuggets. However, there are also times where the team showcasing the likes of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George will leave you wanting to bang your head against a wall until you forget the fact that they somehow were down by 50 in a matchup with the Kristaps Porzingis-less Dallas Mavericks...at halftime.
As is the case with the Heat, there seems to be a disconnect between the Clippers' betting odds and what our model deems their likelihood of winning it all -- 12.5% implied odds versus 6.8%, to be exact. That's a pretty start difference.