In this edition of the 2020-21 NBA Championship Odds Update, we’ll look at which teams saw their numberFire title odds move the most since our last update.
Teams that had strong starts and are starting to look like cohesive units will likely see the most upward movement, while those that had it rough could see their odds spiraling.
If you want to see numberFire's odds for every team, be sure to check out our power rankings. FanDuel Sportsbook's most up-to-date championship odds can be found here. Now, here's a look at four of the teams who had the most movement in title odds over the last week.
Dallas Mavericks
Current numberFire Champs Probability: 5.0%
Previous numberFire Champs Probability: 3.7%
FanDuel Sportsbook Title Odds: +2200
Despite the fact that Kristaps Porzingis has yet to suit up for a game this season, the Dallas Mavericks are 5-4 and have the league's seventh-best net rating.
Over their last six games, Dallas has beaten the Los Angeles Clippers (by 51), Miami Heat, Houston Rockets, Denver Nuggets, and Orlando Magic -- that's a pretty impressive stretch. And even better yet, Porzingis is set to return whenever Dallas takes the court next (tonight's matchup with the New Orleans Pelicans has been postponed).
numberFire's models see some value in placing a championship bet on the Mavs. At 22/1, Dallas' implied odds are 4.4% -- our model has their title chances at 5.0%.
Indiana Pacers
Current numberFire Champs Probability: 1.7%
Previous numberFire Champs Probability: 1.0%
FanDuel Sportsbook Title Odds: +4900
Through nine games, the 6-3 Indiana Pacers rank fifth in the league in net rating. Indiana is sixth in the NBA in effective field goal percentage, seventh in scoring, fifth in assists, sixth in turnovers, fifth in steals, and eighth in blocks on the young season -- they're getting it done on both ends of the court.
The Pacers have had much of this success without each of T.J. Warren and Jeremy Lamb in the lineup -- both players should be available to them at some point this season.
At 49/1, the Pacers are getting pretty close to "value bet" territory.
Utah Jazz
Current numberFire Champs Probability: 1.8%
Previous numberFire Champs Probability: 2.8%
FanDuel Sportsbook Title Odds: +2000
Just like last season, the Utah Jazz have been an inconsistent squad to start the 2020-21 campaign.
In their last seven games, Utah has had victories over the Milwaukee Bucks, San Antonio Spurs, and Los Angeles Clippers (among others), but they've also suffered defeats at the hands of the Phoenix Suns (by 11), Brooklyn Nets (by 34), and New York Knicks (by 12).
The Jazz' net rating of 0.8 is right around league average, and that doesn't exactly scream "title contender."
FanDuel Sportsbook's 20/1 odds carry implied odds of 4.8%, which falls well short of our model's 2.8% title probability. Over at oddsFire, we see that you can get the Jazz priced as low as 35/1, but even those odds (2.8% implied probability) fall short of what our algorithm thinks the likelihood of a Jazz title is.