NBA
Daily Fantasy NBA Adjusted Matchups and Pace for 1/29/21

Matchups matter in daily fantasy NBA, and it can be hard to keep everything -- pace, defensive rating, individual matchups -- tidy, so I wanted to fix that by dumping all the data into one place for ease of use.

So every day, I'll be posting some information on each game for the NBA main slate.

That'll include things like opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive ratings for each team. I'll also look at opponent-adjusted paces based on the team-level as well.

And to go a step further, I'll provide defense-versus-position (DvP) values based on FanDuel points per minute allowed to each position. The way that'll work is to adjust on the individual level. This means looking at each player's total fantasy points per minute mark to figure out an expected output in a game and comparing it to what actually happened. Holding a superstar and a role player to the same FanDuel-point-per-minute mark isn't quite the same. These values will adjust for expectation.

These values initially included last season's data but now show only stats from the 2020-21 season.

Adjusted Offensive Rating and Opponent Defensive Rating

This table shows each team's spread and implied total (plus the over/under for their game). It also includes opponent-adjusted offensive rating and the adjusted defensive rating for each team's opponent, including league-wide ranks for each.

Teams are sorted by implied team total.

Team Opp Over/
Under
Spread Implied
Total
Adj.
Offensive
Rating
Rank Opp Adj.
Defensive
Rating
Rank
BKNOKC232.0-9.0120.50121.73109.415
ATLWSH234.0-4.0119.0112.59121.429
MILNO230.0-7.5118.75123.12113.524
TORSAC229.5-5.5117.50109.517125.030
PHIMIN224.5-6.5115.50111.212116.327
WSHATL234.04.0115.0109.516106.811
DENSA222.0-4.0113.0120.54107.813
UTAHDAL221.5-4.0112.75118.75106.610
INDCHA221.5-3.5112.50114.08112.020
SACTOR229.55.5112.0112.510111.018
OKCBKN232.09.0111.50103.922112.321
NOMIL230.07.5111.25107.819108.014
MINPHI224.56.5109.098.330105.97
SADEN222.04.0109.0108.418113.122
CHAIND221.53.5109.0105.721110.817
DALUTAH221.54.0108.75110.315102.94
ORLLAC213.0-3.5108.25100.425109.616
CLENY208.5-1.0104.75103.124104.15
LACORL213.03.5104.75125.01114.726
NYCLE208.51.0103.7599.726104.56

Adjusted Pace and Expected Pace, Offensive Rating, and Points

This table shows each team's adjusted pace and adjusted opponent pace to find expected pace. Expected offensive rating combines each team's adjusted offensive rating and the opponent's adjusted defensive rating. Combining expected pace and expected offensive rating gives us expected points.

Teams are sorted by fastest adjusted pace. Remember, these are now showing just 2020-21 stats.

Team Opp Adj.
Pace
Rank Opp
Adj.
Pace
Rank Average
Pace
Expected
Offensive
Rating
Expected
Points
ATL WSH 100.6 16 104.7 2 104.5 122.8 128.4
WSH ATL 104.7 2 100.6 16 104.5 106.6 111.5
PHI MIN 101.8 7 101.7 9 102.7 117.1 120.2
MIN PHI 101.7 9 101.8 7 102.7 100.1 102.8
MIL NO 103.5 4 100.0 18 102.7 120.2 123.5
NO MIL 100.0 18 103.5 4 102.7 107.0 109.9
BKN OKC 101.8 8 101.6 10 102.6 115.5 118.5
OKC BKN 101.6 10 101.8 8 102.6 109.3 112.2
TOR SAC 101.4 11 101.2 13 101.9 124.8 127.2
SAC TOR 101.2 13 101.4 11 101.9 112.4 114.5
IND CHA 101.3 12 100.4 17 100.9 114.1 115.2
CHA IND 100.4 17 101.3 12 100.9 108.7 109.7
DEN SA 99.2 25 101.1 14 99.5 113.2 112.7
SA DEN 101.1 14 99.2 25 99.6 112.4 111.9
UTAH DAL 99.9 21 99.5 24 98.7 111.1 109.6
DAL UTAH 99.5 24 99.9 21 98.7 103.1 101.8
ORL LAC 100.0 19 97.0 29 96.2 104.9 100.9
LAC ORL 97.0 29 100.0 19 96.2 122.5 117.8
CLE NY 98.4 27 96.7 30 94.4 100.8 95.1
NY CLE 96.7 30 98.4 27 94.4 99.4 93.8

Player-Level Adjusted FanDuel Points per Minute by Position

This table is presented to be viewed from an offensive perspective (i.e. the defensive marks reflect the offense's opponent).

The matchups shown are their opponent's defensive FanDuel-point-per-minute mark adjusted for individual opponents faced. League-wide ranks are in parenthesis. Because outliers are the primary matchups worth targeting and avoiding, green cells indicate top-five easiest matchups for the offense, and red indicate bottom-five.

Teams are sorted alphabetically for ease of use.

Offense Defense PG SG SF PF C
ATL WSH 1.08 (30) 0.94 (26) 0.86 (11) 0.89 (12) 1.21 (27)
BKN OKC 0.94 (14) 0.85 (6) 0.97 (28) 0.96 (19) 1.14 (21)
CHA IND 0.91 (8) 0.85 (3) 0.89 (16) 0.96 (20) 1.12 (17)
CLE NY 0.90 (7) 0.86 (10) 0.81 (5) 0.86 (4) 1.25 (29)
DAL UTAH 0.89 (6) 0.90 (21) 0.83 (8) 0.88 (8) 1.05 (11)
DEN SA 1.04 (27) 0.80 (1) 0.92 (24) 0.95 (15) 1.06 (12)
IND CHA 0.96 (16) 0.85 (5) 0.98 (30) 1.07 (29) 1.12 (18)
LAC ORL 0.99 (21) 0.91 (23) 0.91 (19) 0.97 (22) 0.99 (5)
MIL NO 0.95 (15) 0.96 (28) 0.91 (20) 0.88 (9) 1.05 (9)
MIN PHI 1.00 (24) 0.87 (12) 0.95 (27) 0.89 (11) 0.95 (3)
NO MIL 0.89 (5) 0.86 (7) 0.90 (17) 0.92 (13) 1.08 (15)
NY CLE 0.93 (10) 0.85 (4) 0.93 (26) 0.97 (21) 1.02 (7)
OKC BKN 0.87 (4) 0.91 (22) 0.84 (9) 1.04 (27) 1.18 (23)
ORL LAC 0.97 (18) 0.89 (19) 0.74 (2) 0.83 (3) 0.95 (4)
PHI MIN 1.06 (28) 0.92 (24) 0.89 (15) 0.89 (10) 1.34 (30)
SA DEN 0.94 (13) 0.94 (25) 0.86 (12) 0.82 (2) 0.93 (2)
SAC TOR 0.98 (19) 0.89 (18) 0.86 (13) 1.05 (28) 1.04 (8)
TOR SAC 1.08 (29) 1.01 (30) 0.90 (18) 0.99 (23) 1.10 (16)
UTAH DAL 0.80 (1) 0.83 (2) 0.93 (25) 1.01 (24) 1.15 (22)
WSH ATL 1.02 (26) 0.89 (17) 0.91 (21) 0.94 (14) 1.07 (13)

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