"One cannot be betrayed if one has no people."
- Kobayashi (The Usual Suspects)
How many times have we been burned by the chalk in NBA DFS?
When it's time to start building GPP lineups, especially for NBA tournaments, the fundamental choice to make is whether or not to buy into the chalk plays of the slate. More than any other sport, the popular plays in the NBA are popular for a reason. Where we often get into trouble in tournaments, however, is when we begin to blindly trust a slate's chalk.
This regular piece will focus on tournaments looking through the lens of the projected chalk plays -- the usual suspects -- of that night's games. In an attempt to understand the context of the slate, this column will look at lower-owned plays that help you gain ownership leverage against the competition.
Wednesday's main slate is a massive 11 games, so we should be able to find plenty of options to differentiate off of the night's chalk plays. Let's dig in to see where we can pivot.
Guard
Trae Young ($10,100) - It doesn't take much high-level analysis to determine the point guard chalk tonight. Russell Westbrook (without Beal), LaMelo Ball (without Graham), and Hamidou Diallo (without basically his whole team) should be quite popular tonight. Add in chalky shooting guards like Jordan Clarkson and Kevin Huerter, and there are likely to be quite a few duplicated guard builds among lineups tonight.
Young may go completely overlooked even though his team is still without Bogdan Bogdanovic, Rajon Rondo, Kris Dunn, and De'Andre Hunter. He has certainly benefited from the increased usage, as he averages 28 points and 12 assists in his last six games, and now faces a San Antonio Spurs squad who have been quite generous to opposing point guards.
The Spurs allows the third-most points per game to the position (26.41) and third-most three-pointers per game (3.39), aligning well with Young who is averaging the highest offensive rating and best three-point percentage in his young career. In his last eight games, he has ticked up his three-point attempts to almost eight per game (7.8) which should serve him well against a Spurs team ranked 26th in the league at defending beyond the arc.
Forward
Denzel Valentine ($4,400) - It's going to be extremely tough to fade Isaiah Stewart at an almost minimum salary in the power forward slot tonight, but if you want to pay up there and save salary elsewhere, Valentine provides almost equal value for your money.
Playing boatloads of minutes lately due to injuries, Valentine is currently numberFire's second-best point-per-dollar play on the night at the small forward position. We have him projected for 14 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, a steal, and a block - which fits with the all-around games he has produced lately given the opportunity.
His 26 minutes per game and 26.2 FanDuel points per game over his last four contests look like the floor to me tonight, considering the Chicago Bulls should once again be without four key pieces of their rotation. It wouldn't be at all surprising if the Los Angeles Clippers deploy Kawhi Leonard on Zach LaVine tonight to try and cool off his scorching hot stretch in his past five games. That would leave either Luke Kennard or Nicolas Batum on Valentine, which would present a much better opportunity for him to contribute while on the court.
Center
Andre Drummond ($8.200) - When there are two supremely chalky centers like we should have tonight with the Nikola boys (Nikola Jokic with a salary drop below $11,000 and Nikola Vucevic as the only Orlando Magic player who can finish a game without getting hurt), I will continue to roster Drummond at a fraction of their salary when I want to get a little different in my lineup builds.
Drummond's last game was an anomaly, playing only 16 minutes and scoring less than 12 FanDuel points in a blowout loss. Considering that box score and the fact that his salary jumped up $500, I don't see many people going this way tonight -- but they should.
The Portland Trail Blazers have developed a reputation for having a poor defense, but there are many layers to that reputation. Yes, they are 28th in the league in defensive rating (115.0), but they also are bottom-10 in rebound rate (49.2%), second-chance points allowed per game (13.5), opponents' field goal percentage (47.8%), and opponents' effective field goal percentage (55.5%).
Enes Kanter (who might be questionable after taking an elbow to the face last night) ranks 60th among all centers in real plus-minus this year. Assuming a close game tonight, Drummond should get back on track with one of his regular 15 point/15 rebound nights.