NBA
3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 2/16/21

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.

For this article, we are using the odds provided at Online Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.

Please note that betting lines and our projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Michael Porter Jr. Over 6.5 Rebounds (-115)

The Denver Nuggets are pretty depleted entering this game. Will Barton, P.J. Dozier, Gary Harris, and Paul Millsap are listed as out, and Monte Morris is questionable.

Michael Porter Jr. played 30.0 minutes last game when Morris played 30.3 minutes, Millsap played 15.7, and Barton and Harris missed. So he could build on that a bit. numberFire projects him for 31.2 minutes.

He's projected for 7.7 rebounds in this game against the Boston Celtics. He's also projected for 16.2 points totaling 23.9 points and rebounds, and his prop there is 22.5. But there's just more value specifically on the over on his rebounds (6.5) at the same odds of -115.

Porter Jr. averages 0.22 rebounds per minute, which totals 6.9 boards at his projected minutes clip, and the Celtics allow 8.3 rebounds per game to opposing small forwards.

Karl-Anthony Towns Over 32.5 Points + Rebounds (-122)

Karl-Anthony Towns is projected for 22.5 points and 10.2 boards, a total of 32.7 points plus boards against the Los Angeles Lakers' elite defense. That's just over the posted total.

Towns' per-minute rates (0.35 rebounds and 0.66 points) -- at his projected rate of 34.1 minutes -- equate to an even higher total (34.4). He's one of the best per-minute rebounders we have in the NBA.

The Lakers do rank top-four in fewest rebounds per game allowed to centers at 12.8 (and they are just average in points per game allowed [21.0]) to the position. Also, Marc Gasol holds opponents to a field goal percentage of 1.6 points lower than their typical average.

But let's get back to the positives: Anthony Davis is out. Kyle Kuzma rates out as a noticeably weaker defender than Davis, which can help out when Towns stretches the floor.

There's only a 6-point spread here, and if the Minnesota Timberwolves keep it close, Towns will be key.

James Harden Under 10.5 Assists (+104)

James Harden leads the NBA in assists per minute (0.30) and will be playing this game without Kevin Durant. In his time without Durant (308.6 minutes), he's on pace with that: 0.29 assists per minute.

But his matchup with the Phoenix Suns brings with it some complications. They are tied with the Houston Rockets for the fewest assists allowed per 100 possessions (22.2), which is more than two helpers per 100 possessions lower than the league median (24.3).

Along with that, only 45.3% of the two-point goals against the Suns come from assists (the third-lowest rate in the NBA), and they are 11th in assist rate on three-pointers while also clamping down on corner three frequency (just 18.3% of threes against the Suns are from the corner, the third-lowest rate in the NBA). The Brooklyn Nets are top-half in corner-three frequency and 10th in corner-three percentage, so Harden could lose some easy assists on those shots.

numberFire projects Harden for 10.0 assists tonight in what could prove to be a tough matchup for racking up dimes.

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