staff favorite for MVP?
I doubt any of us would vote for LeBron, or any of the other players above for that matter, as an MVP candidate through the first two weeks of the season. For one, KD has not played a minute due to injury, while D-Rose has played only three out of seven games while dealing with two sprained ankles. As for Kobe, well, to put it nicely, struggled to play defense and win games. So, with these four usual suspects struggling for various reasons, who is worthy of some early consideration for NBA MVP?
Here, and most Mondays throughout the NBA season, I'll break down the top candidates from 5 to 1 based on our metrics. For those of you unfamiliar with nERD, it's a player ranking that measures the total contribution of a player throughout the course of a season, based on their efficiency. The league average is 0. Comparable to win shares, this ranking gives an estimate of how many games above or below .500 a league-average team would win with that player as one of their starters.
Without further ado, let's take a look at the candidates.
5. James Harden, Houston Rockets
If you wanted to argue that rating of 24.8, while his Rockets have earned the highest nERD of any team (85.1). So, while Harden may be the best player on the number-one ranked team, there's a way we can more effectively weigh the value of each potential MVP candidate.
By dividing Harden's nERD by his team's overall nERD we can find the percentage of total nERD he contributes to his team. Harden's "nERD share", of 29.1% ranks fifth among our top five players. This is in large part due to the presence of getting paid like a top guard, Lowry is proving himself worth every penny. Through seven games, he's our fourth ranked player with a nERD of 18.5.
Lowry's the main reason his team sits pretty at 6-1. He possesses a 29.6% share of his team's total nERD of 62.5. As the "King of the North" and leader of the Raps, I wouldn't be surprised if Lowry is in and out of our top five throughout the season.
This week: Magic, Bulls, Jazz
3. Chris Bosh, Miami Heat
Yes, the real cashing checks. But Curry has more than doubled Thompson's nERD of 10.4 while contributing more than 31.6% of his team's total nERD. They may be "brothers" but Curry should be in the spotlight all year on his way to competing for his first MVP.
This week: Spurs, Nets, Hornets, Lakers
1. Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
Our projections favored first performance of the year, and he hasn't let up since - earning the third-best nERD of all NBA players, with a rating of 20.8. But that's not all he's done.
Brow has helped the Pelicans get off to a 3-2 start against some tough competition. This past week, he led New Orleans to a victory over a tough Charlotte team, but more impressively went into San Antonio and came out with a victory against the defending champs. These types of wins have helped the Pelicans to a team nERD of 54.4 - 12th in the league. While that ranks only 12th in the league, Davis has contributed more than 38.2% of his team's total nERD. That's 6% more than every other candidate. It'll be interesting to see what Brow does against LeBron and the Cavs tonight.
This week: Cavaliers, Lakers, Timberwolves