Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball. Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools to help make money betting player props.
For this article, we are using the odds provided at Online Sportsbook to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.
Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
C.J. McCollum Over 3.5 Made Three-Pointers (-111)
C.J. McCollum is starting to look like his usual self, and he has a dream matchup tonight to go nuts from deep. The Portland Trail Blazers are taking on a Miami Heat squad that allows a 46.4% three-point attempt rate, the highest in the NBA. Miami is giving up 10.5 three-point attempts per game to shooting guards.
McCollum has taken at least 12 three-point attempts in two of his last three games, and he played 38 minutes last time out, his first time recording more than 28 minutes in a game since he came back from injury.
Our model sees solid value on the over on McCollum's made triples prop as we project him for 4.2 made threes tonight.
Julius Randle Under 11.5 Rebounds (-122)
This line is just a bit too high.
Across his last three games, Julius Randle has racked up 6, 7 and 10 boards. In the three games prior, he did go for more than 11.5 rebounds in each (15, 12 and 12), but he's averaging just 10.9 rebounds per game for the season, including 10.8 per night in March.
Randle is taking on the Washington Wizards, and he's had two very different rebounding games against the Wiz this campaign, pulling down 18 boards in early February and then logging only 6 rebounds on Tuesday. On one day of rest this season, which is the situation tonight, Randle has averaged 10.3 rebounds.
We project Randle to finish with 10.6 boards today against Washington.
Dennis Schroder Under 18.5 Points (-106)
As you'd expect, Dennis Schroder definitely shoulders more of the load when the Los Angeles Lakers are without their two stars.
Sans LeBron James and Anthony Davis the last two games, Schroder has scored 22 and 15 points, taking an average of 12 shots in the two outings with a 25.7% usage rate across the two. For the season, his usage rate is 26.8% with James and Davis off the floor, per NBAWowy, which is a bump of 4.0 percentage points from his season-long number.
But there are reasons to like the under on Schroder's points prop. The Philadelphia 76ers -- LA's foe tonight -- have been really tough on point guards lately, permitting just 20.4 points per game to the position over their last five. And in general, Philly is in the midst of a lights-out defensive stretch, posting the league's best defensive rating over the last 15 games (102.6).
Our algorithm forecasts Schroder to net just 16.4 points tonight, a good bit below this line.