Basketball is the most consistent sport for daily fantasy purposes.
A top slugger in baseball will have his fair share of 0-for-4 days, and an elite fantasy football player is at risk of having games where his team's offense as a whole is shut down. A high-salaried NBA stud is generally going to get his, though. With so many possessions in a game providing opportunities to produce, top fantasy basketball options will be posting high scores just about every night.
While this consistency puts us in a good position to identify top plays, it also means you can't afford to miss when you're paying a heavy salary to roster someone. Even with strong value plays in your lineup, getting a dud from a stud is likely going to leave your lineup lacking.
Let's get right into it and look at which top players should be the focal points of your lineups today.
All injury updates are via the NBA's official injury report or numberFire's player news.
Damian Lillard, PG, Portland Trail Blazers
FanDuel Salary: $8,800
We haven't seen Damian Lillard at a salary this low in more than 13 months, so we need to pounce.
Dame is fresh off a game in which he managed just 18.7 FanDuel points against the Miami Heat, which could keep his roster percentage down (to an extent). He's been extremely volatile lately, totaling 36 fantasy points or fewer in four of his last seven, while dropping 44.6, 53.3, and 53.8 in the other three.
numberFire's algorithm is a big fan of Lillard in this one, projecting the 30-year-old to post 46.7 FanDuel points. That makes him the top-projected scorer on the entire slate.
With the game between the Portland Trail Blazers and Boston Celtics having the slate's second-highest over/under (229.5), we'll definitely want a piece of this action.
Paul George, SG, Los Angeles Clippers
FanDuel Salary: $9,000
Though he will undoubtedly be chalky, Paul George is well worth rostering tonight.
For their matchup with the Indiana Pacers, the Los Angeles Clippers will be without Kawhi Leonard, Serge Ibaka, and Patrick Beverley, leaving plenty of volume up for grabs. With those players off the court this season, PG13 utilizes 36.6% of his team's possessions while averaging 1.49 FanDuel points per minute, according to RotoGrinders.
Indiana has been tough on wings all season, though they have ceded the ninth-most fantasy points to shooting guards over their last seven games, per FantasyPros.
Over at numberFire's Matchup Heatmap, we see that this match has the slate's highest over/under (232.0). Coupled with the tight 3.0-point spread, this a game we should actively be looking to target.
Jaylen Brown, SF, Boston Celtics
FanDuel Salary: $8,000
Jaylen Brown's been on a heater lately, recording 40.1, 43.5, and 55.5 FanDuel points over his last three.
Tonight, Brown and the Celtics will take on a Blazers team that ranks 29th in defensive efficiency and has ceded the fourth-most real-life points and 10th-most fantasy points to small forwards over their last 15 games.
Brown has topped 39 fantasy points in 10 of his last 15 games, including eight outputs of 43.5-plus. At tonight's salary, he would need just 40 FanDuel points to achieve five-times value (or 5.0 fantasy points for every $1,000 in salary).
Domantas Sabonis, PF, Indiana Pacers
FanDuel Salary: $9,000
In the Paul George blurb, I outlined why this matchup between the Pacers and Clippers was one we should want to target, and another way of getting exposure to it is by rostering Domantas Sabonis.
The All-Star has racked up 45.0 and 50.5 FanDuel points in his last two, which means that he has now surpassed 40 fantasy points in 30 of his 49 games.
For this contest, Indiana will be without the services of Myles Turner, so Sabonis should see more time at the five. With Turner off the court this season, Sabonis sports a team-leading 26% usage rate while averaging an impressive 1.38 FanDuel points per minute.
The matchup isn't ideal, but considering that the Clips will be down three of their top defenders (Leonard, Ibaka, and Beverley), it isn't one we need to lose sleep over.