Basketball is the most consistent sport for daily fantasy purposes.
A top slugger in baseball will have his fair share of 0-for-4 days, and an elite fantasy football player is at risk of having games where his team's offense as a whole is shut down. A high-salaried NBA stud is generally going to get his, though. With so many possessions in a game providing opportunities to produce, top fantasy basketball options will be posting high scores just about every night.
While this consistency puts us in a good position to identify top plays, it also means you can't afford to miss when you're paying a heavy salary to roster someone. Even with strong value plays in your lineup, getting a dud from a stud is likely going to leave your lineup lacking.
Let's get right into it and look at which top players should be the focal points of your lineups today.
All injury updates are via the NBA's official injury report or numberFire's player news.
LaMelo Ball, PG, Charlotte Hornets
FanDuel Salary: $6,200
It feels strange to label someone salaried at $6,200 as a "stud," but labels are for losers and we're looking to win, amiright?
Make no mistake about it, LaMelo Ball is a stud tonight -- and you'll want him on your roster. The rookie will be squaring off against the Detroit Pistons, a team that's tanking struggling mightily. Over their last 30 games, Detroit has ceded the fifth-most fantasy points to the opposition's floor generals, per FantasyPros.
Ball has dropped 35.4 and 38.7 FanDuel points in the two games since he's returned from a lengthy absence, and he'll need to take on a heavier role tonight, as the Charlotte Hornets are slated to be without Devonte' Graham, Miles Bridges, PJ Washington, and Cody Martin.
numberFire's projection for Ball is 38.3 FanDuel points tonight, which would make him the fourth-best point-per-dollar play on the entire slate.
Fred VanVleet, SG, Toronto Raptors
FanDuel Salary: $7,100
Fred VanVleet's inconsistency makes him an ideal target for tournaments, especially since it should keep his roster percentage from ballooning, and that's no different tonight.
As has been the case for a majority of the season, the Toronto Raptors are banged-up -- for tonight's bout with the Los Angeles Clippers, they'll likely be without each of OG Anunoby, Gary Trent, Chris Boucher, and Paul Watson. That's a boon for FVV's outlook.
If you look just at his last four games, you'll see why the veteran shooting guard grays the hair of those who roster him. During that stretch, he's posted 55.5, 26, 23.7, and 53.7 FanDuel points, in that order. Tonight's a night to aim for one of those 50-burgers.
There's something about facing elite defenses that makes VanVleet salivate. In 17 healthy outings against teams that are inside the top-10 in defensive efficiency this season (per NBA.com), FVV has averaged 43.6 FanDuel points, including 14 outputs of more than 36 -- he only needs 35.5 to return five-times value (or 5.0 fantasy points for every $1,000 in salary) tonight.
Our model projects VanVleet to be the top value play among all players with a salary above $6,200 on Tuesday's slate.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, PF, Milwaukee Bucks
FanDuel Salary: $11,400
The matchup of the night -- both for fantasy and entertainment purposes -- is that between the Milwaukee Bucks and Brooklyn Nets. According to numberFire's Matchup Heat Map, this contest has an over/under of 241.5, which is a good 6.5 points higher than any other game on the slate. And, if that wasn't enough, the two-point spread is tighter than any match that the slate has to offer.
All that brings us to fantasy's second-leading scorer, Giannis Antetokounmpo. After a brief cold spell (by his standards) the beast that is the Greek Freak has awoken. Over his last five games, the two-time MVP has averaged 63.5 FanDuel points per contest, including a 75.6-fantasy-point outburst against these very same Nets just two days ago.
Antetokounmpo has now taken on Brooklyn twice this campaign, and it's quite evident that they have no answer for him. All he's done in those two matchups is drop 63.9 and the aforementioned 75.6 FanDuel points. Not too shabby.
It's not just the Nets that Giannis has made his very own human piñata. In 10 games versus teams that are bottom-seven in defensive efficiency, he has averaged 64.6 FanDuel points, including at least 62.6 in all but two of them.
numberFire's algo has Giannis totaling 57.7 fantasy points tonight, making him the top-projected scorer by 5.4.
Bam Adebayo, C, Miami Heat
FanDuel Salary: $8,300
Considering that we can only roster one player at the position, it's rare that I analyze a slate of this size and come away feeling like the center position is thin, but that is the case tonight. As a result, Bam Adebayo become my unquestioned primary target at the position.
Bam's been a consistent fantasy producer for most of the 2020-21 campaign. The big man has produced 40-plus fantasy points in 35 of his 58 efforts this season, and he's only put up fewer than 37 in 14 of those games. That gives him one of the safer floors in fantasy.
Adebayo's hasn't been any less stable of late, as he's eclipsed 43 fantasy points in six of his last eight contests.
A matchup against a Dallas Mavericks that'll likely be without the services of Kristaps Porzingis is not one we have to fear. That's why our models have Bam out-producing the next-closest center by six FanDuel points tonight.