NBA Betting Guide for Friday 5/14/21: Can the 76ers Cover the Massive Spread?
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and our oddsFire section of the site allows you to track movement in those lines and see where the action is coming from on particular games.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Washington Wizards
There are smart money indications on the over (227.0) for this tilt between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Washington Wizards in Washington.
The betting public, via oddsFire, is putting 56% of the bet slips on the over, but that comes with 74% of the money attached, a gap of 18 percentage points.
Our model is also on the over, rating it as a two-star recommendation out of five. The median projected point total in this game, per our sims, is 231.2 points, which leaves the over as 57.7% likely to occur. That means we can anticipate a 10.1% return.
The Wizards have gone over in 7 of their past 10 games, and the Cavs have done it in 5 of their past 10, as well.
Orlando Magic at Philadelphia 76ers
It's not a surprise that the Philadelphia 76ers are heavy favorites (13.5 points). After all, the Orlando Magic are quite dead from a playoffs standpoint, and the 76ers are currently the 1 seed in the East and just dropped two straight games.
But that spread may not be quite large enough.
Our model sees them covering that 52.4% of the time, which is kinda wild just because of how big it is, but teams favored by at least 13.0 points this year (there have been 35) have covered 57.1% of the time.
Of the 26 home teams that were favored by at least 13, 17 of them covered (65.4%). That bodes really well for the top team in the East.
The betting public is on the 76ers to cover, too: 76% of the money is on them to win by 14 or more.
While we're at it, there are also good trends on the under (216.0). Our model sees it 57.7% likely to stay under 216, and so far, 91% of the money is on the under. That number will go down eventually, but it's clear where the early bettors have been going on the total.
Sacramento Kings at Memphis Grizzlies
Our model is loving the Memphis Grizzlies tonight but prefers their moneyline (-240) to the spread (-5.5).
Those -240 odds suggest the Grizz should be 68.8% likely to win, but our model sees them 79.5% likely to get to 38-33 on the season. The public is also on that side of things, evidenced by the 81% ticket rate and 89% money rate on the Grizzlies' moneyline.
Our model anticipates an average point differential of 8.9 points, making Memphis -5.5 a two-star recommendation and 60.9% likely. The betting public is more split on the spread, so we should stick to the moneyline primarily.
numberFire's algorithm is also pretty in on the over (227.0), which it rates as a three-star recommendation. The median point total in our sims comes out to 234.3 points.
