NBA
3 NBA Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 11/2/21

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways, from taking advantage of them straight up within the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball.

Here we'll focus on utilizing our projections and a slew of other tools and simulations to help make money betting player props.

For this article, we are using the odds provided at NBA Finals odds to pinpoint spots where value can be had tonight.

Please note that betting lines and our player projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.

Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 12.5 Rebounds (-106)

The odds attached for Giannis Antetokounmpo to get to 13 rebounds are -114, which is pretty wild to think about, but with the Milwaukee Bucks' lengthy injury list, a lot is open for Antetokounmpo.

Despite the juice and ostensible expectation on the over here, our model projects Antetokounmpo for a strong-but-under-worthy 10.8 rebounds (0.32 per minute). That's on par with his in-season rebounding rate of 0.35.

While you might think he's slated for a huge rebounding boost with the Bucks' injuries, since the start of 2020-21, he has averaged just 0.28 boards per minute without Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, and Brook Lopez.

That's why the under is the recommendation here.

At his baseline of 10.8 rebounds, my simulation model would assume him to stay under 13 boards at a 68.8% clip.

Joe Ingles Over 8.5 Points (-102)

Joe Ingles' per-game scoring average of 10.3 could initially get us on the path for the over, but there's more to like than just that method.

Ingles is projected for 9.6 points across 24.2 minutes tonight against the Sacramento Kings, who rank 24th in defensive rating.

Ingles' shot volume projection (1.7 two-point attempts, 5.1 three-point attempts, and 1.1 free throw attempts) converted his four-year running shooting efficiency would net him 9.0 points, too.

My simulation model sees Ingles getting to 9 points at a 59.6% probability based on numberFire's median baseline.

Russell Westbrook Over 8.5 Rebounds (-124)

The model is digging the over on Russell Westbrook's rebounding prop.

The Los Angeles Lakers have a mid-level rebounding matchup against the Houston Rockets, who have gathered 49.9% of rebounds in their games so far.

Westbrook himself is at a per-game average of 8.7 but is projected for a big bump there, according to our algorithm. He's projected for a flat 10.0 boards tonight across a minutes projection of 35.2 tonight.

Based on Westbrook's rebounding chances and his rebounding conversion numbers, he should be projected for 8.9 rebounds tonight at the expected minutes rate.

Yet at the elite baseline of 10.0 from numberFire's actual projections, my sims have Westbrook 62.4% likely to get to at least 9 rebounds tonight.

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