Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics
With a few heavy favorites on the slate, I'll be turning -- mostly -- to the tighter games for these writeups.
We have that here with the Boston Celtics favored by 3.5 and listed as -158 on the moneyline.
numberFire's model sees the Celtics -158 as a three-star suggestion out of five, meaning a three-unit wager is the recommendation.
The spread is a one-star bet, so we should lean on the outright win instead.
The Philadelphia 76ers enter on a three-game losing streak, interestingly making them the only team in the NBA that is 0-3 over their past three games.
That small winless stretch comes with a hefty -16.3 point differential and an even worse -21.0 spread-adjusted point differential.
Even though both sides in this game have a long injury list, the trending Celtics are getting the nod at home, where they are 8-5.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies
We're not going to avoid all the big favorites, so that puts us on the Memphis Grizzlies (favored by 9.0 and listed at -430 on the moneyline).
Memphis is 11-7 at home with a point differential of +6.2 and a spread-adjusted point differential of +2.9. The Oklahoma City Thunder, on the road, are just 4-9 with a point differential of -12.9 and a spread-adjusted number of -4.0.
In non-garbage situations without Ja Morant and Brandon Clarke, the Grizzlies actually have a net rating of +8.5.
numberFire's model is seeing the Grizzlies' spread as a one-star play but their moneyline as a two-star option.
The Utah Jazz (-700 to win) is a better play (a three-star recommendation), but the odds are a lot shorter for the Grizz, which is why it's getting the writeup.
My model sees Memphis favored by 12.0 with leverage and injury adjustments.
San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Clippers
Let's go back down to a tighter spread.
The Los Angeles Clippers (-4.5) are rating out as 80.0% likely to win tonight, per numberFire's model.
That puts their moneyline (-188) into three-star territory, as it outperforms the implied moneyline odds of 65.3%. The expected return is 20.8% as a result.
The spread is also a three-star opportunity. numberFire's model sees the Clippers covering at a 64.2% probability, good for an expected return of 22.6%.
This is all in spite of the fact that Paul George is questionable. Without him, the Clippers have a non-garbage net rating of +0.5.
Across the 25 most comparable games to this one in our database, teams representing the Clippers won at a 68.0%...clip. Teams representing the San Antonio Spurs covered only 32.0% of the time, as well.