Basketball is the most consistent sport for daily fantasy purposes.
A top slugger in baseball will have his fair share of 0-for-4 days, and an elite fantasy football player is at risk of having games where his team's offense as a whole is shut down. A high-salaried NBA stud is generally going to get his, though. With so many possessions in a game providing opportunities to produce, top fantasy basketball options will be posting high scores just about every night.
While this consistency puts us in a good position to identify top plays, it also means you can't afford to miss when you're paying up for someone. Even with strong value plays in your lineup, paying up and getting a dud is likely going to leave your lineup drawing pretty close to dead.
Which top players should be the focal points of your lineups today?
Nikola Jokic, C, Denver Nuggets ($11,300)
This daily fantasy sport can be so cruel at times.
Nikola Jokic was a night-shattering bust last night in Oklahoma City. The Nuggets trailed by less than 15 points late, but Jokic was benched in favor of a surging second unit. A tough scene for the reigning league MVP.
Jokic, though, shouldn't be a benching concern on most nights. Michael Malone may have chosen to rest him with a fairly low win probability last night as the Nuggets enter the second leg of a back-to-back against the Hornets on Thursday. Including the dud, Jokic is still averaging 1.71 FanDuel points per minute in December. He probably did need a rest from the heavy lifting.
The matchup with Charlotte makes for a great spot to turn back to Jokic. The Hornets allow the most FanDuel points per game to opponents with a primary position of center (61.18). That's largely because they allow the most rebounds per game (48.2) with their smaller lineup.
The 227.0-point total in this game is also the highest on the slate, so "The Joker" has an excellent chance to turn things around heading into the NBA's holiday break.
Dejounte Murray, PG/SG, San Antonio Spurs ($9,900)
Outside of center, the stars on the slate are mostly at guard. Even choosing just two of them is challenging.
However, Dejounte Murray should get the nod, similar to Jokic, based on his matchup. The Lakers have struggled with point guards this season; they've allowed the fifth-most FanDuel points per game (48.16) to opponents with a primary position of point guard. It doesn't help that their rim protector, Anthony Davis, is sidelined with a knee injury for the foreseeable future.
Murray's individual production continues to be tremendous. He's averaging 1.34 FanDuel points per minute this month on a 23.4% usage rate that is best amongst starters. Murray has eclipsed 47 FanDuel points in four of his last five games entering this favorable matchup.
The 224.0-point total between the Lakers and Spurs is the only one within shouting distance of the contest in Denver, so Russell Westbrook is not a bad choice, as well, to load up on stars in this solid environment.
LaMelo Ball, PG, Charlotte Hornets ($9,600)
I could have easily chosen Westbrook here, but I believe LaMelo Ball warrants heavy consideration in tournaments.
Ball is working his way back from the long layoff in COVID-19 protocols, and his last game was his first seeing at least 30 minutes since his return. He logged 32. That may cause him to fly a bit under the radar today, but Ball has slate-changing potential in the main slate's best environment, and that can't be ignored.
Importantly, Ball's exclusively the way to access the Hornets in this spot. Many of them are still over-salaried from the team's lengthy battle with COVID-19 protocols, but Ball really isn't. He's broken 50 FanDuel points eight times this season, and he's averaging 1.44 FanDuel points per minute in the month of December on a 29.5% usage rate. That production level this month is second to only Jokic on the entire slate.
With plenty of value in other spots, a mini-stack of Jokic and Ball encompasses a lot of the volume in the slate's highest-totaled game. That's a great starting point to a tricky Thursday slate.