Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit, and you can track line movement within games and compare odds over at the oddsFire section of the site.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's games? (All odds from NBA Finals odds.)
Atlanta Hawks at Philadelphia 76ers
The Atlanta Hawks are on a back-to-back without Trae Young, Clint Capela, Kevin Huerter, and Danilo Gallinari.
They're 11.0-point road underdogs. That checks out after a 104-98 loss to the Orlando Magic last night at home.
The Philadelphia 76ers are without Andre Drummond, Danny Green, and Shake Milton. The 76ers without those three in non-garbage situations in games that Joel Embiid played have a net rating of -8.6. That's rough.
The Hawks, adjusting for their main absences, have a non-garbage net rating of -12.0. That's rougher.
My model, then, sees the Sixers as 7.0-point favorites, suggesting we take the points with the Hawks.
numberFire's model anticipates a 3.9-point gap here and thus rates the Hawks +11.0 as a four-star play.
New Orleans Pelicans at Orlando Magic
The Magic, as already mentioned, are on a back-to-back after a six-point win over the depleted Hawks last night. They're 6.0-point 'dogs at home, a bet that numberFire's model likes a bit (it's a two-star play out of five).
The Magic -- just like every team -- have a long list of likely absences that are highlighted by Cole Anthony, Wendell Carter Jr., Mohamed Bamba, and Jalen Suggs.
Without those aforementioned Magic players on the court, their net rating is terrible: -14.6.
The New Orleans Pelicans will be without Jonas Valanciunas. Without him and in non-garbage situations, the Pelicans' net rating is also abysmal: -11.0.
But injected into a full game (with both teams playing at slow paces), my model sees the spread as just 1.5 in favor of the Pelicans. It, therefore, also points to the Magic (+6.0).
Milwaukee Bucks at Dallas Mavericks
The Milwaukee Bucks are without Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bobby Portis, Donte DiVincenzo, and Brook Lopez but will have Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday.
With and without those aforementioned players and in non-garbage situations, the Bucks have an awesome +15.4 net rating but are getting there with a lot of defensive luck. Opponents, in this split, have an effective field goal percentage of 51.8% despite a shot quality allowed of 54.0% (i.e. expected effective field goal percentage).
The Dallas Mavericks without Luka Doncic, Kristaps Porzingis, and Tim Hardaway Jr. are at a +2.1 themselves in terms of net rating.
Accounting for all this, my model sees the spread as 4.0 points, and with defensive regression for the Bucks, that puts the spread closer to 2.0.
numberFire's model likes the Mavericks to cover (+3.5) and rates it as a four-star play. Their moneyline (+132) is a three-star play, as well.