With the NFL season winding down, we here at numberFire are turning our full attention to the NBA season that's already in full swing. Worried about your Lakers, sitting at 15-18? A Bulls fan who wants to know how solid that 19-13 record is? Or are you like me, a Jazz fan whose team is sitting at 18-18 and the bubble?
As always, we're here to help. Our analysts have run the numbers, and we update each team's playoff odds daily at our NBA Team Rankings page. But sometimes, it's good to look a little bit more in-depth.
Here, from No. 30 to No. 1, are each team's playoff odds, broken down into categories ranging from the least efficient players in the NBA to the most.
The Jannero Pargo Category
30. Washington Wizards: 0.0% Playoff Chance
29. Cleveland Cavaliers: 0.0%
28. Charlotte Bobcats: 0.0%
27. New Orleans Hornets: 0.0%
26. Phoenix Suns: 0.5%
25. Sacramento Kings: 0.6%
This category is named after Four Factors that will determine whether or not a team is playing efficiently. Normally, especially on the defensive end, a team will be solid in one but fall off in another.
But not the Kings. They are in the bottom half of the league in every single one of Oliver's defensive four factors. And that includes opponents' free throw factor, at which they are 28th in the league, and opponents' defensive rebounding percentage, at which they are dead last in the league. Not good for a team with highly-touted big men in Four Factors category in the league's top ten (a 13.7 percent offensive turnover rate, which ranks 10th), and only
The Andrea Bargnani Category
23. Detroit Pistons: 9.8% Playoff Chance
22. Orlando Magic: 10.0%
20. Toronto Raptors: 16.7%
Named after former No. 1 pick Hanging with Mr. Cooper. This year, however, might be the year.
For each of these teams to do it, though, they'll have to capitalize upon a strength. In Milwaukee, that's turnovers - they're sixth-best in not turning the ball over and third-best in forcing turnovers. Plus, Larry Sanders has the best block percentage in the league and can be a nightmare defensively. For Denver, the key will be getting their defensive rebounding (71.1 percent of opportunities, 27th in the NBA) on par with their offensive rebounding (32.1 percent, second in the NBA). And in Golden State, they'll need to keep shooting the lights out (their .509 eFG% is ninth) while simultaneously stopping opponents from doing the same (opponents' .475 eFG% is fourth-lowest).
The Tony Parker Category
9. Memphis Grizzlies: 97.2% Playoff Chance
8. Chicago Bulls: 97.5%
7. Indiana Pacers: 98.4%
6. Atlanta Hawks: 99.9%
If you're a fan of one of these teams, you can start booking your playoff tickets now. Yes, even you in the Benny Bull costume, worshiping at your Derrick Rose prayer altar. You're through the worst part of the season, and only a minor miracle will keep you out of the playoffs now. Just like Tony Parker, you're established well enough that nobody's going to be able to tear you down.
Memphis is an interesting case. They're top five in offensive rebounding percentage (first), opponents' eFG% (third), and causing turnovers (second). They're also in the bottom third of all NBA teams in their own eFG% (23rd) as well as their own turnover percentage (22nd). This might be the time where they try to pick up their pace - currently third-slowest in the NBA - to see how that changes their offense before getting to the playoffs and seeing Oklahoma City or the L.A. Clippers change it for them.
Chicago, Indiana, and Atlanta, meanwhile, aren't the strongest teams in the NBA. According to our nERD statistic, which measures a team's overall effectiveness, the Nuggets, Rockets, and even Lakers are more efficient squads than all three. But that's the benefit of being in the Eastern Conference: you don't need to be extraordinarily strong in order to essentially be assured a playoff birth. Especially the Pacers - whose 1.4 percent increase in turnover percentage has dropped them from seventh to 28th in the category in one season - have work to do, but there's time for that before the playoffs arrive.
The Kevin Durant Category
5. New York Knicks: 100.0% Playoff Chance
4. Miami Heat: 100.0%
3. San Antonio Spurs: 100.0%
2. Oklahoma City Thunder: 100.0%
1. Los Angeles Clippers: 100.0%
If you're in this category, then you're Kevin Durant: hot, unstoppable, and ready to take over the rest of the NBA. Oh yeah, and have a stronger chance of being elected President than missing the playoffs this season.
I've ordered these five by order of our nERD rankings, which measures the efficiency of each NBA team. And it might surprise some to see Lob City at the top of the rankings. But it shouldn't.
The 27-8 Clippers are third in the NBA with a 110.3 offensive rating, fourth in the NBA with a 105.6 defensive rating, and sit in the top 11 of the league in six of the eight (offensive and defensive) Four Factors criteria for winning games. Their absolute strength is forcing turnovers, where their 16.3 percent turnover percentage is easily first in the NBA. A big reason is both Eric Bledsoe and Chris Paul, who sit one and two in individual steal percentage with both stealing on above four percent of possessions.