Man.
will be out for an uncertain amount of time. A timetable won't be set until he has his surgery.
We can lament the derailment of a promising return for a former NBA MVP all we want, but this injury will likely affect the Eastern Conference playoff race as well as the playoffs themselves.
With Rose out yet again, where does that leave the NBA? And how does it affect the Bulls' playoff push?
A Rose By Another Game
It's no news at this point that Rose hasn't been the player of old. The eye test suggests that he's willing to settle for jumpers rather than drive the lane, and the numbers support that, too.
His three-point attempt rate is a career-high 32.3 percent, well above the 24.9 mark in his 2011-12 campaign and his career 17.0 mark. Rose is attempting 5.5 three-pointers per game and making just 1.6, good for just a 28.7 percent success rate. That's pretty easily the worst percentage among the 27 players who attempt at least 5.0 three-pointers per game.
Similarly, his free throw rate is down from 34.4 in 2011-12 to just 22.4. He is attempting a career-low 26.2 percent of his shots from within three feet. His career mark is 31.7 percent. Rose is more reliant on the perimeter than ever before, and that has worsened his overall efficiency.
Excluding last season -- in which Rose played just 311 minutes -- Rose's Win Shares per 48 minutes (.046) are the lowest of his career, just like his with Rose on the court, the Bulls post an Offensive Rating of 108.0. In the 1,343 minutes without him, that number is 108.2. Essentially, there's no difference between the Bulls' overall offense with or without Rose.
The team's assist percentage, the rate of field goals led to by assists, takes a slight downtick, sure, from 58.8 to 58.4, but there's little in the numbers to suggest that losing Rose's offense makes the Bulls worse. With Defensive Real Plus-Minus of -1.40 ranks just 50th among 93 qualified point guards this season. Hinrich's -0.04 ranks 29th among 104 shooting guards.
Rose's Defensive Rating this year of 108 is just slightly worse than his career average of 107, so Rose hasn't lost it all defensively (for what that's worth), but this coupled with his offensive adjustment period hasn't exactly made the Bulls better.
The Verdict
The Bulls sit at 36-21 and are third in the East right now. According to our algorithms, losing Rose means just 0.5 fewer wins the rest of the way. Their playoff odds still sit at 100.00 percent. The biggest worry is that their NBA Championship odds decline from 5.2 percent to 3.8 percent.
Losing Rose might affect some intangibles, sure, but as for the on-court product, the results are quite small because of Rose's offensive struggles and overall inefficient play.
It's hard not to feel bad for Rose, but as for the Bulls, they should be able to maintain with Brooks (-0.3 nERD), Hinrich (-4.3), and E'Twuan Moore (-0.4) until his potential return.