The Oklahoma City Thunder entered the 2014-15 preseason as title contenders, the same as they have for each of the last several years.
By the end of October, they had lost both members of their superstar duo of
As you can see, the Thunder started the season with high expectations. Our metrics initially projected them to have an 87.9% chance to make the playoffs (a near lock as a pre-season projection) and an elite 7.7% chance of winning the title. Then, everything went off a cliff with the Durant and Westbrook injuries. At the low point of the season (week four above), their playoff chances went all the way down to 7.7% and their title chances to 0.1%.
They were reeling without their two best players, sitting with a record of 4-12 going into a November 28th game against the New York Knicks at said low point in week four. As you can guess by looking at the stark rise in playoff chances following that date, that just so happens to be the game when OKC got Westbrook back, one before Durant's original return, and not coincidentally when things started looking undeniably up for the Thunder.
Westbrook hit the ground running upon his return to the lineup, ripping off nine straight games of at least 20 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists (@okcthunder's Net Rating (+/- Per 100 Possessions) in February with... Westbrook on the floor: +19.2 Westbrook off the floor: -3.0
— NBA.com/Stats (@nbastats) February 25, 2015Plus, this stuff keeps happening on an almost nightly basis.
The last player before Westbrook to record 20+pts,15+asts & 5+rebs in a game in which he played <30mins was Magic Johnson (20/16/8 in '89)
— NBA.com/Stats (@nbastats) February 23, 2015and
.@RussWest44 is the 1st guard since Fat Lever in 1987 to finish with a 20-10-10 triple double in under 30 minutes of play
— NBA.com/Stats (@nbastats) February 25, 2015plus
.@russwest44 has tied Bird, Magic & Fat Lever for the most career games in the shot clock era w/ a triple-double & under 30mins played (3)
— NBA.com/Stats (@nbastats) February 25, 2015with a bit of
Per ELIAS, @russwest44 is the first player with 20+pts/10+asts in 4 straight wins since Magic & Kevin Johnson during the '89-90 season
— NBA.com/Stats (@nbastats) February 25, 2015Seriously though, this one:
Westbrook's Per 40 Minute Averages with Durant off the floor have been sensational @okcthunder @nbatv #INDvOKC pic.twitter.com/PW3f4iDDzh
— NBA.com/Stats (@nbastats) February 25, 2015Russ' Box Plus-Minus at +11.2 and comes in second in Player Efficiency Rating (PER) with 29.1 -- no small feat for a player whose biggest knock has almost always been a lack of efficiency.
Even those who still complain about his ball dominance and the way he leads the Thunder in shots with 20.2 taken per game can no longer ignore the fact that he's also leading the entire Association in Assist Percentage by dropping dimes on 47.8% of the baskets scored by his teammates while he's on the floor. He's simply doing everything for the Thunder regardless of who plays with him on a night-to-night basis.
OKC probably won't win enough games for Russ to get MVP recognition over the likes of James Harden and Stephen Curry (playing with KD probably hurts his chances too), but he certainly deserves to be in the conversation for revitalizing the Thunder's playoff and title hopes during a season mired in inconsistency and doubt.
Chances of Thunder Going Forward
At 88.2%, the Thunder's playoff chances are now even higher than they were before the season began and all the chaos happened. Their championship chances are not quite back on track yet, sitting at less than half the initial 7.7% projection at 3.6%, but that is in large part because of teams such as the Golden State Warriors (33.4%) and Atlanta Hawks (15.1%) taking a much larger piece of the championship-chance pie than anyone could've predicted four months ago.
The Thunder might only sit in the 8 seed in the Western Conference with a 2.0 game lead on the ninth-place New Orleans Pelicans, but the once compelling race for the West's final playoff spot is looking more and more like a foregone conclusion every day. The Pelicans (12.9% playoff chances) are riddled with injuries, and the 10th-place Suns (6.9%) mortgaged what little star power they had at the trade deadline, seemingly pushing the reset button.
When you consider that the Thunder are hitting their stride at the right time, that they added great depth themselves at the trade deadline, and the chance that they might have a healthy and rested KD peaking come playoff time, you can bet there's not a team in the West that wants them in an 8, 7, or even 6 seed matchup.
In fact, it's growing difficult to imagine that anyone will be that surprised if Oklahoma City makes a deep playoff run this spring, regardless of where they finish in the standings. With the added depth and all the experience they've gained gutting things out this season, it's hard not to see them as the contenders they've been for the last five seasons -- perhaps even stronger if they can stay healthy.
At some point, we'll likely look back and wonder why anyone ever doubted them in the first place.