NBA Win Totals Betting: 3 Overs Our Algorithm Likes for 2022-23
The NBA season is drawing near, and that means we need to get our NBA win total bets in while we can.
We need to account for roster turnover and schedule strength when looking at anticipated win totals.
Thankfully, numberFire's algorithm is able to handle that thousands of times over by simulating the upcoming season. The results can help identify the best bets we can make for the new campaign.
Based on those simulations, these three teams jump out as good bets to go over their win totals in 2022-23.
Chicago Bulls
Over 41.5 Wins (-120)
The Chicago Bulls' 41.5 win total is set a pretty noticeable step back from a 46-win season a year ago.
They'll be without point guard Lonzo Ball for a few months at the least, but they set up with an easier-than-average schedule based on sportsbook win totals.
Across thousands of season simulations, numberFire's model views the Bulls' average win output as 43.1, a 1.6-win gap over their prop.
At that win total, they should be around -145 on the over at 41.5 wins.
Based on pre-season expected point differentials (derived from the sportsbook win totals) and accounting for home-court advantage, the Bulls should be considered at least 60.0% favorites in 23 games and at least 40.0% likely to win in another 34. That gives them 57 very winnable games -- more than enough cushion to side with the over.
Portland Trail Blazers
Over 39.5 Wins (-110)
The total for the Portland Trail Blazers represents a 12.5-win jump from a 25-win season a year ago. Their prior five seasons yielded 42, 35, 53, 49, and 41 wins, for context.
Based on sportsbook win totals, the Blazers have just the 22nd-toughest schedule this season, and 23 of their games (28.0%) should feature them as at least 60.0% likely to win once we account for home-court advantage.
They need to take care of business from there. However, they are positioned for a huge increase from last year so long as Damian Lillard remains healthy.
Our season simulations give the Trail Blazers an average of 41.6 wins, thus clearing the over by 2.1 games.
Utah Jazz
Over 23.5 Wins (+102)
The Utah Jazz faithful are in for a bit of a different season than what they've had in the past.
Utah has had at least 40 wins in seven straight seasons and made the postseason in six consecutive campaigns.
This year, the win total sits near the bottom of the league at 23.5, and there are actually -128 odds on the under.
numberFire's projections like the over; Utah is projected for 26.1 wins across the season simulations. That's a win differential of 2.6, and that puts enough value on the over to make the play.
