NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday 10/25/22: Examining a Small Slate for Value
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds?
Detroit Pistons at Washington Wizards
Under 221.0 (-110) - 1 star
Washington Wizards Moneyline (-210) - 1 star
There are just one-star (i.e. one-unit) leans here on this game according to numberFire's model. My model is a bit heavier on this matchup, however.
Excluding low-leverage possessions this season, the Detroit Pistons have a net rating of -14.5, and even if I scale back an outlier defensive rating (121.8), it's hard to dislike the Wizards' side in this game.
Washington's non-garbage net rating is +1.4 this season, which is notable given the overlap of Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis.
numberFire's model views the Wizards as 70.0% likely to get the win; mine has them at 77.1%.
Los Angeles Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder +9.5 (-110) - 3 stars
Under 214.0 (-110) - 2 stars
The Los Angeles Clippers list Paul George and Marcus Morris as out for tonight's game, thus ruling out two guys in their top three in minutes per game. George has played 36.1 minutes per game, the only mark above 27.0, so that's a big loss. Morris has played 25.1 minutes per game.
Without them on the floor this season in games with Kawhi Leonard, they have a -38.2 net rating over 25 minutes. That sample is too small to trust, but we're looking at a Clippers team that is limiting minutes for their best player and will be without their second option.
That alone should put us on the Thunder; however, they list Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey as out. Since last season without those two on the floor and in medium-to-very-high leverage situations, their net rating has been only -13.0.
The lowly offensive ratings for each in these splits also places attention on the under (214.0), which has spiraled from 220.0.
numberFire's model still sees this game staying under that new total with a 58.0% probability.
Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns
Phoenix Suns Moneyline (-120) - 4 stars
Phoenix Suns -1.5 (-110) - 3 stars
Under 226.0 (-110) - 4 stars
Injuries aren't the headliner in this game. We should get teams mostly at full strength -- at least among the most impactful players.
With that in mind, this battle of 2-1 teams favors the Suns, according to numberFire's model. They are rating out as 62.2% likely to cover the spread and 69.4% likely to win outright.
Notably, in games with Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green since last season, the Golden State Warriors are 20-8 with a non-garbage net rating of +8.2.
The Suns, in games with Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and Deandre Ayton since last season are 33-8 with a net rating of +10.2 when we remove low-leverage possessions.
My model is a bit lower on the Suns outright but does like the under and expects 221.6 total points.
