NBA Betting Guide for Wednesday 11/16/22: Navigating a Ton of Questionable Tags
Betting on the NBA can get a little overwhelming throughout the season because there are games every day, and there's just a lot to track throughout the season and entering every night -- spreads, over/unders, injuries, and so on.
But you can rely on numberFire to help. We have a detailed betting algorithm that projects out games to see how often certain betting lines hit. You can also track spread bet percentages at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Where do our algorithm, our power rankings, and the betting trends identify value in tonight's NBA odds? (All offensive rating, defensive rating, and net rating splits come from PBPStats.com and account for medium-, high-, and very high-leverage situations unless otherwise noted.)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Washington Wizards
Over 228.0 (-110)
Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5 (-108)
One way to navigate the injuries is to target games without questionable tags. There are injuries, yes, but we're not seeing studs like Bradley Beal or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with uncertain statuses.
What we do see in this game are two below-average teams by key sample net rating (with Oklahoma City a -1.8 and Washington a -5.1 in medium-to-very-high-leverage situations) with better-than-average offenses (a 114.5 offensive rating for the Thunder and a 116.5 for the Wizards) and worse-than-average defenses (a 116.3 for OKC and a 121.6 for the home side here).
That all culminates in a pretty easy over call in my model. You inject two plus offenses against two generous defenses, and what do you expect otherwise?
The closeness in net rating also points to value on the Thunder to cover; numberFire's model sees that as 52.3% likely. Mine has it at 65.8% likely.
Minnesota Timberwolves at Orlando Magic
Over 225.5 (-110)
There are questionable tags in this game for the Orlando Magic with both Paolo Banchero and Wendell Carter Jr., but whether or not they play, the over looks to be the right call.
It's already on the way up, but there's still room for it even at 225.5.
These two teams have roughly average offensive ratings when accounting for injuries and game leverage but are weak defensively, namely the Magic (a 117.7 defensive rating even with Carter Jr. and Banchero playing).
Also helping point to the over is the pace: both teams generate at least 100.0 possessions per 48 minutes once accounting for injuries, and the Minnesota Timberwolves rank fifth in pace on the full season.
numberFire's model also has a lean on the over, suggesting it as a one-star (i.e. one-unit) bet.
New York Knicks at Denver Nuggets
New York Knicks +4.5 (-110)
I know the theme today is avoiding injury news, but when someone is ruled out, that's different than being a game-time call. For the Denver Nuggets, Nikola Jokic is already ruled out. Even with Aaron Gordon questionable, we can look here, because Gordon is not nearly as impactful.
The Nuggets' splits without Jokic on the floor are a +12.6 net rating with him and a -16.3 without him for a net of +28.9 with him versus without him. It's no wonder he's the reigning MVP.
For the visiting Knicks, they're just 3-4 away from Madison Square Garden and will remain without Mitchell Robinson. Despite that 3-4 road record, they have a 4-3 record against the spread and generally bring the defense: opponents have gone over their implied total just twice in these seven road games.
That's relevant because the Nuggets' offensive rating without Jokic plummets to 99.6, a 22.9-point drop.
Issues scoring for Denver and solid defense from the Knicks should keep this one in New York's favor even on a back-to-back.
